Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

WSH 18 – PHI 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: medium

The betting line

PHI -6

Sportsbooks make Philadelphia Eagles the favorite by 6. Expected combined score: 43.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 3:48 PM EDT

Our projected score

Washington Commanders logo Washington Commanders18

Philadelphia Eagles logo Philadelphia Eagles26

Final score

Washington Commanders logo Washington Commanders22

Philadelphia Eagles logo Philadelphia Eagles24

Pick missed

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles projection

Washington Commanders visit Philadelphia Eagles in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads WSH 18 – PHI 26, a 8-point edge to Philadelphia Eagles. DraftKings has PHI -6 with a total of 44.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 274 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 18–26 away–home (week 1), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 41.5 rushing yards
WSH · RB
We project 48Recent average 48 over 8 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -113
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 48 rushing yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 41.5 at DraftKings (-113), and our model projects 48 — 7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jacory Croskey-Merritt 63 rushing yards
Jalen Hurts under 1.5 passing touchdowns
PHI · QB
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -152
Jalen Hurts has averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 1.5 at DraftKings (-152), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.2 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Jalen Hurts 3 passing touchdowns
Terry McLaurin under 4.5 receptions
WSH · WR
We project 4.1Recent average 4.1 over 6 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -161
Terry McLaurin has averaged 4.1 receptions over 6 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 4.5 at DraftKings (-161), and our model projects 4.1 — 0.4 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Terry McLaurin 2 receptions
DeVonta Smith under 65.5 receiving yards
PHI · WR
We project 50Recent average 50 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
DeVonta Smith has averaged 50 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 65.5 at DraftKings (-110), and our model projects 50 — 16 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: DeVonta Smith 53 receiving yards
DeVonta Smith under 5.5 receptions
PHI · WR
We project 4.3Recent average 4.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -145
DeVonta Smith has averaged 4.3 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 5.5 at DraftKings (-145), and our model projects 4.3 — 1.2 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: DeVonta Smith 3 receptions
Terry McLaurin over 51.5 receiving yards
WSH · WR
We project 62Recent average 62 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
Terry McLaurin has averaged 62 receiving yards over 6 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 51.5 at DraftKings (-113), and our model projects 62 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Terry McLaurin 14 receiving yards