PreviewNFLSunday, November 8, 2026Sun, 1:00 PM EST

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Game preview · Sunday, November 8, 2026

The pick

Take Los Angeles Rams -5.5

Los Angeles Rams is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 5.5 points.

Pick locked in: Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

Current market

Current market check pending

The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. A fresh read has not been computed yet.

Official pick: -5.5 · locked Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT
Latest DraftKings: -4.5 · Nov 8, 2026 · 1:07 AM EST

Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line, price and side exactly as they were locked.

The betting line

LAR -4.5

Sportsbooks make Los Angeles Rams the favorite by 4.5. Expected combined score: 47.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 1:07 AM EST

Our projected score

Los Angeles Rams logo Los Angeles Rams27

Washington Commanders logo Washington Commanders21

Kickoff

Sun, 1:00 PM EST

Fox — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Nov 8, 2026

Preview: Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

The Los Angeles Rams travel east to face the Washington Commanders in Week 9 action this Sunday. DraftKings opened the Rams as 5.5-point road favorites with a game total established at 48.5. That tracked spread of Los Angeles -5.5 represents the number we took for our baseline evaluation.

Our statistical model projects a 27–21 victory for Los Angeles. Under this simulated outcome, the Rams win by six points, which narrowly clears the tracked 5.5-point spread by half a point and supports the pick on the road favorite. The projected 48 total points also settles just below the market total of 48.5.

This pick carries a low model rating. The algorithm relies strictly on regular-season form, excludes preseason performance, and applies a 50 percent weight to prevailing market lines to balance historical efficiency against live consensus. While the data indicates a slight lean toward Los Angeles covering on the road, projections reflect mathematical probabilities rather than guaranteed outcomes.

Get an updated prediction

Live analysis — not an official tracked pick.

Our official recommendation above is locked to the line and price we published. If you see a different number at your sportsbook, enter that user-entered changed line here to see how our stored projection leans against it. Nothing you type is saved, sent, or added to our record.

Side

Spread for LAR

For example -3.5 or +6. Enter 0 for a pick’em. Range -100 to +100.

American odds

Whole number, -110 or +145 style. Price context only.

How the model got here

Projected 27–21 away–home (week 9), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 50% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns-158DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 9:18 AM EST · result pending
Puka Nacua under 8.5 receptions-143DraftKings line 8.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 9:18 AM EST · result pending

Each number and price is the DraftKings figure recorded before kickoff and never changed afterwards. Times are Eastern.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jayden Daniels — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WSH · QB
We project 0.4Recent average 0.4 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +255
Jayden Daniels scored in 2 of 5 games last season (0.4 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 40% chance to score, against 28% in the DraftKings price (+255), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Rachaad White — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WSH · RB
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +140
Rachaad White scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 42% in the DraftKings price (+140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Stefon Diggs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WSH · WR
We project 1Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +195
Stefon Diggs scored in 3 of 4 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+195), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Kyren Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LAR · RB
We project 0.7Recent average 0.64 over 15 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -140
Kyren Williams scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 7 of 12 games last season (0.7 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 64% chance to score, against 58% in the DraftKings price (-140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns
LAR · QB
We project 2.3Recent average 1.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -158
Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.1 passing touchdowns over 2 games this season and 2.8 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-158), and our model projects 2.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Puka Nacua under 8.5 receptions
LAR · WR
We project 6.6Recent average 6.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -143
Puka Nacua has averaged 5.5 receptions over 2 games this season and 7.7 across 11 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 8.5 (-143), and our model projects 6.6 — 1.9 below the number, so the play is the under.
No longer qualifies at the current line. The official pick stays tracked and graded at under 8.5. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.