PreviewNFLSunday, November 8, 2026Sun, 1:00 PM EST

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Game preview · Sunday, November 8, 2026

The pick

Take Dallas Cowboys -3.5

Dallas Cowboys is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 3.5 points.

Pick locked in: Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

Current market

Current market check pending

The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. A fresh read has not been computed yet.

Official pick: -3.5 · locked Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT
Latest DraftKings: -5.5 · Nov 8, 2026 · 1:07 AM EST

Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line, price and side exactly as they were locked.

The betting line

DAL -5.5

Sportsbooks make Dallas Cowboys the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 51.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 1:07 AM EST

Our projected score

Dallas Cowboys logo Dallas Cowboys28

Indianapolis Colts logo Indianapolis Colts24

Kickoff

Sun, 1:00 PM EST

Fox — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Nov 8, 2026

Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

The Dallas Cowboys travel to face the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday in a Week 9 matchup featuring two productive offenses. DraftKings lists Dallas as a 3.5-point road favorite, with the game total set at a relatively high 51.5 points.

Our statistical model forecasts a 28–24 victory for Dallas. That projected four-point margin would be just enough for the Cowboys to cover the tracked spread of -3.5 that we took. Built strictly on regular-season performance and applying a 50 percent weight to market anchors, the simulation anticipates an active scoring environment where Dallas maintains a slight edge from start to finish.

Because the projected margin clears the betting line by only a fraction of a point, the model issues a low rating on Dallas -3.5. These projections reflect probabilistic modeling rather than certainty, representing a modest statistical lean on the road favorite in what shapes up to be a tightly contested game.

Get an updated prediction

Live analysis — not an official tracked pick.

Our official recommendation above is locked to the line and price we published. If you see a different number at your sportsbook, enter that user-entered changed line here to see how our stored projection leans against it. Nothing you type is saved, sent, or added to our record.

Side

Spread for DAL

For example -3.5 or +6. Enter 0 for a pick’em. Range -100 to +100.

American odds

Whole number, -110 or +145 style. Price context only.

How the model got here

Projected 28–24 away–home (week 9), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 50% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Javonte Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes-235DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 2, 6:18 AM EST · result pending
Jonathan Taylor — Anytime touchdown: Yes-145DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 9:18 AM EST · result pending
Mo Alie-Cox — Anytime touchdown: Yes+1000DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 9:18 AM EST · result pending
Dak Prescott under 2.5 passing touchdowns-197DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 9:18 AM EST · result pending

Each number and price is the DraftKings figure recorded before kickoff and never changed afterwards. Times are Eastern.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Drew Ogletree — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IND · TE
We project 0.18Recent average 0.18 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +2000
Drew Ogletree scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.18 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 18% chance to score, against 5% in the DraftKings price (+2000), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
CeeDee Lamb — Anytime touchdown: Yes
DAL · WR
We project 0.93Recent average 0.62 over 16 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -135
CeeDee Lamb scored in 4 of 6 games this season and in 2 of 10 games last season (0.93 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 62% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Javonte Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
DAL · RB
We project 1.12Recent average 0.9 over 15 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -235
Javonte Williams scored in 4 of 4 games this season and in 6 of 11 games last season (1.12 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 90% chance to score, against 70% in the DraftKings price (-235), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Jonathan Taylor — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IND · RB
We project 1.56Recent average 0.89 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -145
Jonathan Taylor scored in 4 of 4 games this season and in 5 of 10 games last season (1.56 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 89% chance to score, against 59% in the DraftKings price (-145), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Mo Alie-Cox — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IND · TE
We project 0.32Recent average 0.32 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +1000
Mo Alie-Cox scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 7 games last season (0.32 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 32% chance to score, against 9% in the DraftKings price (+1000), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Dak Prescott under 2.5 passing touchdowns
DAL · QB
We project 1.9Recent average 1.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -197
Dak Prescott has averaged 2 passing touchdowns over 6 games this season and 1.4 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-197), and our model projects 1.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.