Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 20, 2026Final

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take Washington Commanders +4.5

Washington Commanders is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 4.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

DAL -3.5

Sportsbooks make Dallas Cowboys the favorite by 3.5. Expected combined score: 51.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 4:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Washington Commanders logo Washington Commanders23

Dallas Cowboys logo Dallas Cowboys27

Final score

Washington Commanders logo Washington Commanders20

Dallas Cowboys logo Dallas Cowboys37

Pick missed

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026

Preview: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys projection

Washington Commanders visit Dallas Cowboys in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads WSH 23 – DAL 27, a 4-point edge to Dallas Cowboys. DraftKings has DAL -4.5 with a total of 50.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Washington Commanders +4.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T21:07:47+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 23–27 away–home (week 2), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 51.5 — Over -105 / Under -115.

Low

Our projected combined score is 50 · Under win probability 51.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the projection was not made by the league's active public version.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Terry McLaurin under 4.5 receptions-155DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:08 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jayden Daniels under 216.5 passing yards
WSH · QB
We project 175Recent average 175 over 8 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -111
Jayden Daniels has averaged 164 passing yards over 1 game this season and 180 across 7 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 216.5 (-111), and our model projects 175 — 41 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Jayden Daniels 96 passing yards
Javonte Williams under 74.5 rushing yards
DAL · RB
We project 62Recent average 62 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -110
Javonte Williams has averaged 41 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 71 across 11 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 74.5 (-110), and our model projects 62 — 13 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Javonte Williams 30 rushing yards
Terry McLaurin under 51.5 receiving yards
WSH · WR
We project 44Recent average 44 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -110
Terry McLaurin has averaged 14 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 56 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 51.5 (-110), and our model projects 44 — 8 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Terry McLaurin 50 receiving yards
Dak Prescott under 265.5 passing yards
DAL · QB
We project 235Recent average 235 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -113
Dak Prescott has averaged 175 passing yards over 1 game this season and 260 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 265.5 (-113), and our model projects 235 — 31 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Dak Prescott 279 passing yards
CeeDee Lamb under 74.5 receiving yards
DAL · WR
We project 69Recent average 69 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -111
CeeDee Lamb has averaged 44 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 80 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 74.5 (-111), and our model projects 69 — 5 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: CeeDee Lamb 153 receiving yards
Terry McLaurin under 4.5 receptions
WSH · WR
We project 3.3Recent average 3.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -155
Terry McLaurin has averaged 2 receptions over 1 game this season and 3.9 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-155), and our model projects 3.3 — 1.2 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Terry McLaurin 2 receptions