Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Post-game analysis · Sunday, October 4, 2026
The pick
Take Baltimore Ravens -11.5
Baltimore Ravens is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 11.5 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 4, 2026 · 6:25 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
BAL -11.5
Sportsbooks make Baltimore Ravens the favorite by 11.5. Expected combined score: 42.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Tennessee Titans14
Baltimore Ravens27
Final score
Tennessee Titans18
Baltimore Ravens24
Pick missed
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Post-game analysis · Oct 4, 2026
Post-game: Ravens Hold Off Titans but Fall Short of Spread
On Sunday, October 4, 2026, the Baltimore Ravens earned a 24–18 victory over the Tennessee Titans, but they failed to cover the tracked -11.5 spread. With Baltimore winning by only six points, our pick registered a loss against the DraftKings line.
Our statistical projection had anticipated a 27–14 Ravens victory, which accurately identified the outright winner and came reasonably close to Baltimore’s 24-point offensive output. However, the model missed on Tennessee's defensive resistance and game state management. The Titans generated 18 points and stayed competitive throughout, preventing the double-digit separation required to cash the ticket.
We entered the matchup with a low model rating, reflecting limited projected value against a heavy market number. Backing large favorites in the NFL leaves virtually no margin for error, and Baltimore’s inability to pull away in the second half turned what was a solid straight-up win into an ATS defeat.
Matchup preview · Oct 4, 2026
Preview: Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
The Tennessee Titans travel to Baltimore on Sunday to face the Ravens in Week 4 action. When our model processed the matchup, DraftKings listed the Ravens as 11.5-point home favorites, with the game total set at 41.5 points.
Our statistical projection forecasts a 27–14 victory for Baltimore. That 13-point projected margin gives Baltimore a slight advantage over the -11.5 spread we took. Meanwhile, the combined 41 projected points sits just a half-point below the market total, indicating an expectation for a measured pace.
Because the projected margin clears the tracked spread by only 1.5 points, the model assigns this play a low rating with an edge of 1.18 points. The baseline relies strictly on regular-season form and applies a 65 percent weight to the betting market. It represents a subtle statistical lean toward Baltimore covering at home rather than a definitive forecast.
How the model got here
Projected 14–27 away–home (week 4), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Zay Flowers — Anytime touchdown: Yes+135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:06 PM EDT · result win
- Elic Ayomanor over 19.5 receiving yards-113DraftKings line 19.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:06 PM EDT · result win
- Zay Flowers over 66.5 receiving yards-110DraftKings line 66.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:06 PM EDT · result win
- Tony Pollard over 47.5 rushing yards-111DraftKings line 47.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:06 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- TEN · TE
David Martin-Robinson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +4000David Martin-Robinson scored in 1 of 4 games last season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 2% in the DraftKings price (+4000), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- BAL · TE
Mark Andrews over 3.5 receptions
We project 4.1Recent average 3.8 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -164Mark Andrews has averaged 5.1 receptions over 2 games this season and 2.5 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 8% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-164), and our model projects 4.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Mark Andrews 5 receptions
- BAL · WR
Zay Flowers — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.62Recent average 0.57 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +135Zay Flowers scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 5 of 13 games last season (0.62 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 57% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Zay Flowers scored a touchdown
- TEN · WR
Elic Ayomanor over 19.5 receiving yards
We project 36Recent average 36 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113Elic Ayomanor has averaged 42 receiving yards over 2 games this season and 30 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 19.5 (-113), and our model projects 36 — 17 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Elic Ayomanor 22 receiving yards
- BAL · WR
Zay Flowers over 66.5 receiving yards
We project 98Recent average 98 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110Zay Flowers has averaged 150 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 75 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 66.5 (-110), and our model projects 98 — 31 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Zay Flowers 118 receiving yards
- TEN · RB
Tony Pollard over 47.5 rushing yards
We project 61Recent average 61 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111Tony Pollard has averaged 60 rushing yards over 3 games this season and 63 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 47.5 (-111), and our model projects 61 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Tony Pollard 48 rushing yards
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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