Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

TB 24 – CIN 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: medium

The betting line

CIN -3.5

Sportsbooks make Cincinnati Bengals the favorite by 3.5. Expected combined score: 50.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo Tampa Bay Buccaneers24

Cincinnati Bengals logo Cincinnati Bengals26

Final score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo Tampa Bay Buccaneers27

Cincinnati Bengals logo Cincinnati Bengals33

Pick missed

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals projection

Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit Cincinnati Bengals in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads TB 24 – CIN 26, a 2-point edge to Cincinnati Bengals. DraftKings has CIN -3.5 with a total of 50.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. No regular-season games have been completed yet this year, so last season's regular-season results carry the team ratings, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 272 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 24–26 away–home (week 1), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Cade Otton over 28.5 receiving yards
TB · TE
We project 40Recent average 40 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112
Cade Otton has averaged 40 receiving yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 28.5 at DraftKings (-112), and our model projects 40 — 12 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cade Otton 26 receiving yards
Emeka Egbuka under 4.5 receptions
TB · WR
We project 2.9Recent average 2.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -155
Emeka Egbuka has averaged 2.9 receptions over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 4.5 at DraftKings (-155), and our model projects 2.9 — 1.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Emeka Egbuka 5 receptions
Emeka Egbuka under 54.5 receiving yards
TB · WR
We project 36Recent average 36 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112
Emeka Egbuka has averaged 36 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 54.5 at DraftKings (-112), and our model projects 36 — 18 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Emeka Egbuka 63 receiving yards
Joe Burrow over 2 passing touchdowns
CIN · QB
We project 2.5Recent average 2.5 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -216
Joe Burrow has averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns over 6 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 2 at DraftKings (-216), and our model projects 2.5 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Joe Burrow 1 passing touchdowns
Chase Brown over 58.5 rushing yards
CIN · RB
We project 74Recent average 74 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
Chase Brown has averaged 74 rushing yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 58.5 at DraftKings (-113), and our model projects 74 — 16 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Chase Brown 56 rushing yards
Chase Brown over 3.5 receptions
CIN · RB
We project 4.4Recent average 4.4 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -119
Chase Brown has averaged 4.4 receptions over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 3.5 at DraftKings (-119), and our model projects 4.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Chase Brown 5 receptions