Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Game preview · Sunday, November 8, 2026
The pick
Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 6 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
Current market
Current market check pending
The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. A fresh read has not been computed yet.
- Official pick
- +6 · locked Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT
- Latest DraftKings
- +6 · Nov 8, 2026 · 12:09 AM EST
Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line, price and side exactly as they were locked.
The betting line
CHI -6
Sportsbooks make Chicago Bears the favorite by 6. Expected combined score: 47.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:09 AM EST
Our projected score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers21
Chicago Bears27
Kickoff
Sun, 8:20 PM EST
NBC — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Nov 8, 2026
Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Week 9 brings the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road to take on the Chicago Bears in an intriguing NFC clash. Our statistical model projects a final score of Chicago 27, Tampa Bay 21, landing right around the game’s 47.5 total.
When we published, we took Tampa Bay at +6. The model’s unrounded margin sits at 5.2 points in favor of the Bears, giving the Buccaneers a slight statistical edge to stay within the tracked six-point spread. The calculation relies entirely on regular-season performance data—excluding preseason noise—and incorporates a 50 percent anchor weight against the market consensus to balance historical efficiency with current line movement.
Consequently, our pick is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6, though the model assigns this game a low rating. Projections represent probabilistic medians rather than certainties, especially when the projected differential sits so close to a key betting number. As always, these figures offer a data-driven baseline rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Get an updated prediction
Live analysis — not an official tracked pick.
Our official recommendation above is locked to the line and price we published. If you see a different number at your sportsbook, enter that user-entered changed line here to see how our stored projection leans against it. Nothing you type is saved, sent, or added to our record.
Side
For example -3.5 or +6. Enter 0 for a pick’em. Range -100 to +100.
Whole number, -110 or +145 style. Price context only.
How the model got here
Projected 21–27 away–home (week 9), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 50% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Luther Burden III over 65.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 65.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 3:18 PM EST · result pending
- Luther Burden III over 4.5 receptions-140DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 3:18 PM EST · result pending
- Emeka Egbuka over 3.5 receptions-135DraftKings line 3.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 3:18 PM EST · result pending
- Sean Tucker — Anytime touchdown: Yes+800DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 3:18 PM EST · result pending
- Emeka Egbuka under 46.5 receiving yards-111DraftKings line 46.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 3:18 PM EST · result pending
Each number and price is the DraftKings figure recorded before kickoff and never changed afterwards. Times are Eastern.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- CHI · WR
Jahdae Walker — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.58Recent average 0.58 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +2200Jahdae Walker scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 2 of 3 games last season (0.58 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 58% chance to score, against 4% in the DraftKings price (+2200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- CHI · WR
Luther Burden III over 65.5 receiving yards
We project 92Recent average 78 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114Luther Burden III has averaged 80 receiving yards over 6 games this season and 53 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 65.5 (-114), and our model projects 92 — 26 above the number, so the play is the over.
- CHI · WR
Luther Burden III over 4.5 receptions
We project 6Recent average 5.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -140Luther Burden III has averaged 5.2 receptions over 6 games this season and 3.9 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-140), and our model projects 6 — 1.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
- TB · WR
Emeka Egbuka over 3.5 receptions
We project 4.6Recent average 4.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -135Emeka Egbuka has averaged 4.8 receptions over 5 games this season and 3.2 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-135), and our model projects 4.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
- TB · RB
Sean Tucker — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.49Recent average 0.35 over 11 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +800Sean Tucker scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 5 of 10 games last season (0.49 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- TB · WR
Emeka Egbuka under 46.5 receiving yards
We project 37Recent average 37 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111Emeka Egbuka has averaged 36 receiving yards over 5 games this season and 41 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 46.5 (-111), and our model projects 37 — 10 below the number, so the play is the under.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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