Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 20, 2026Final

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take New England Patriots -5.5

New England Patriots is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 5.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

NE -5.5

Sportsbooks make New England Patriots the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 41.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Pittsburgh Steelers logo Pittsburgh Steelers17

New England Patriots logo New England Patriots24

Final score

Pittsburgh Steelers logo Pittsburgh Steelers3

New England Patriots logo New England Patriots20

Pick covered

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 20, 2026

Post-game: Patriots Cover Against Steelers in Week 2

On Sunday, September 20, 2026, the New England Patriots handled the Pittsburgh Steelers 20–3, comfortably beating the tracked DraftKings spread of -5.5. Our model backed New England on a medium rating, anticipating that the Patriots would control the game at home, and the pick delivered a clean win.

The projection anticipated a 24–17 Patriots victory, successfully identifying an edge on the home favorite against the market number. New England's offense performed roughly in line with expectations, putting up 20 points and establishing a 17-point margin of victory that cleared the 5.5-point hurdle with ease.

Where the model missed was in overestimating Pittsburgh's offensive capability. The model projected the Steelers to score 17 points, but New England’s defense dominated from the outset, allowing just a single field goal and keeping the combined score well under the 41.5 total. While the defensive performance was stronger than projected, the underlying lean on New England to cover proved accurate.

Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026

Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots projection

Pittsburgh Steelers visit New England Patriots in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads PIT 17 – NE 24, a 7-point edge to New England Patriots. DraftKings has NE -5.5 with a total of 41.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is New England Patriots -5.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T23:07:34+00:00, rated medium by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 17–24 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

TreVeyon Henderson over 38.5 rushing yards-112DraftKings line 38.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 11:18 PM EDT · result win
Pat Freiermuth over 26.5 receiving yards-108DraftKings line 26.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 11:18 PM EDT · result win
Pat Freiermuth over 2.5 receptions-167DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 11:18 PM EDT · result win
Jaylen Warren over 41.5 rushing yards-110DraftKings line 41.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 11:18 PM EDT · result win
Mack Hollins over 35.5 receiving yards-109DraftKings line 35.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 11:18 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions
NE · RB
We project 3Recent average 3 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -159
Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 5 receptions over 1 game this season and 2.1 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-159), and our model projects 3 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Rhamondre Stevenson 1 receptions
TreVeyon Henderson over 38.5 rushing yards
NE · RB
We project 60Recent average 60 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112
TreVeyon Henderson has averaged 60 rushing yards across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 38.5 (-112), and our model projects 60 — 22 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: TreVeyon Henderson 76 rushing yards
Pat Freiermuth over 26.5 receiving yards
PIT · TE
We project 39Recent average 39 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -108
Pat Freiermuth has averaged 46 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 36 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 26.5 (-108), and our model projects 39 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Pat Freiermuth 32 receiving yards
Pat Freiermuth over 2.5 receptions
PIT · TE
We project 3.6Recent average 3.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -167
Pat Freiermuth has averaged 5 receptions over 1 game this season and 3 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-167), and our model projects 3.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Pat Freiermuth 4 receptions
Jaylen Warren over 41.5 rushing yards
PIT · RB
We project 56Recent average 56 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Jaylen Warren has averaged 46 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 61 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 41.5 (-110), and our model projects 56 — 15 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jaylen Warren 43 rushing yards
Mack Hollins over 35.5 receiving yards
NE · WR
We project 48Recent average 48 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109
Mack Hollins has averaged 51 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 46 across 11 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 35.5 (-109), and our model projects 48 — 12 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Mack Hollins 18 receiving yards