Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026
The pick
Take Philadelphia Eagles -7
Philadelphia Eagles is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 7 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: medium
The betting line
PHI -7
Sportsbooks make Philadelphia Eagles the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 39.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
Philadelphia Eagles24
Tennessee Titans15
Final score
Philadelphia Eagles24
Tennessee Titans20
Pick missed
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Post-game analysis · Sep 20, 2026
Post-game: Eagles Beat Titans 24-20 but Fail to Cover
On Sunday, September 20, 2026, the Philadelphia Eagles secured a 24-20 road victory over the Tennessee Titans. While Philadelphia claimed the straight-up win, the four-point margin fell short of covering our tracked 7-point spread, going down as a clear loss for our model pick.
On the positive side, the model nailed Philadelphia’s exact offensive output. The projection called for a 24-15 final, correctly anticipating how the Eagles would move the ball and dictate tempo in an early-season road matchup.
The breakdown came on the other side of the ball. Tennessee exceeded its 15-point projection by five points, stringing together key scoring drives that kept the final score within a touchdown. Relying on provisional early-season data carried real variance, and our medium-rated edge evaporated because the model underestimated the Titans' ability to stay competitive down the stretch.
Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026
Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans projection
Philadelphia Eagles visit Tennessee Titans in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads PHI 24 – TEN 15, a 9-point edge to Philadelphia Eagles. DraftKings has TEN +7 with a total of 39.5.
This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Philadelphia Eagles -7 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T17:07:55+00:00, rated medium by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 24–15 away–home (week 2), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Tony Pollard over 44.5 rushing yards-109DraftKings line 44.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result win
- Tyjae Spears over 2.5 receptions-125DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result loss
- DeVonta Smith under 4.5 receptions+104DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result loss
- Dallas Goedert — Anytime touchdown: Yes+215DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result loss
- Elic Ayomanor — Anytime touchdown: Yes+850DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- PHI · WR
Dontayvion Wicks — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +330Dontayvion Wicks has scored in 1 of his last 1 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+330), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Dontayvion Wicks did not score a touchdown
- TEN · RB
Tony Pollard over 44.5 rushing yards
We project 69Recent average 69 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109Tony Pollard has averaged 69 rushing yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 44.5 (-109), and our model projects 69 — 24 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Tony Pollard 64 rushing yards
- TEN · RB
Tyjae Spears over 2.5 receptions
We project 3.6Recent average 3.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -125Tyjae Spears has averaged 3.6 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-125), and our model projects 3.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Tyjae Spears 2 receptions
- PHI · WR
DeVonta Smith under 4.5 receptions
We project 3.2Recent average 3.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +104DeVonta Smith has averaged 3.5 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 9% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (+104), and our model projects 3.2 — 1.3 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: DeVonta Smith 10 receptions
- PHI · TE
Dallas Goedert — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.93Recent average 0.93 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +215Dallas Goedert has scored in 5 of his last 10 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 61% chance to score, against 32% in the DraftKings price (+215), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Dallas Goedert did not score a touchdown
- TEN · WR
Elic Ayomanor — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.37Recent average 0.37 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +850Elic Ayomanor has scored in 3 of his last 10 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 31% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+850), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Elic Ayomanor did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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