Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Post-game analysis · Monday, September 28, 2026
The pick
Take Chicago Bears -1.5
Chicago Bears is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 17, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
PHI -4.5
Sportsbooks make Philadelphia Eagles the favorite by 4.5. Expected combined score: 41.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Philadelphia Eagles22
Chicago Bears25
Final score
Philadelphia Eagles7
Chicago Bears27
Pick covered
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Post-game analysis · Sep 28, 2026
Post-game: Bears pull away from Eagles to cover -1.5
On Monday, September 28, 2026, the Chicago Bears handled the Philadelphia Eagles 27-7, easily clearing the tracked -1.5 DraftKings spread. Our model recommended Chicago on a low rating, and the 20-point home victory secured a clean win against the number.
The projection was right on the winning side and very close on Chicago’s offensive production. The model forecasted a 25-22 Bears victory, missing Chicago’s actual 27-point output by just two points. It properly weighted early-season regular-season priors to lean toward the home favorite against a tight market line.
What the model missed was the complete suppression of Philadelphia’s attack. It projected the Eagles to score 22 points, but Chicago’s defense controlled the game entirely and held them to a single touchdown. While our rating was cautious given the early-season data, Chicago outperformed the projected margin by a wide distance.
Matchup preview · Sep 28, 2026
Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears projection
Philadelphia Eagles visit Chicago Bears in NFL on Monday, September 28, 2026. Our projection reads PHI 22 – CHI 25, a 3-point edge to Chicago Bears. DraftKings has CHI -1.5 with a total of 47.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Chicago Bears -1.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-18T00:07:31+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 22–25 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing touchdowns+128DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Saquon Barkley under 76.5 rushing yards-111DraftKings line 76.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Darius Cooper — Anytime touchdown: Yes+1400DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 1:07 AM EDT · result pending
- Cole Kmet — Anytime touchdown: Yes+650DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- CHI · WR
Jahdae Walker — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.77Recent average 0.77 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1800Jahdae Walker scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 2 of 3 games last season (0.77 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 77% chance to score, against 5% in the DraftKings price (+1800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- CHI · RB
Kyle Monangai — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.42Recent average 0.42 over 17 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +195Kyle Monangai scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 5 of 15 games last season (0.42 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 42% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+195), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Kyle Monangai did not score a touchdown
- PHI · QB
Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 2Recent average 2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +128Jalen Hurts has averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns over 2 games this season and 1.6 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (+128), and our model projects 2 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jalen Hurts 0 passing touchdowns
- PHI · RB
Saquon Barkley under 76.5 rushing yards
We project 57Recent average 57 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111Saquon Barkley has averaged 43 rushing yards over 2 games this season and 72 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 76.5 (-111), and our model projects 57 — 19 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Saquon Barkley 82 rushing yards
- PHI · WR
Darius Cooper — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.3Recent average 0.3 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +1400Darius Cooper scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 0 of 5 games last season (0.3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 30% chance to score, against 7% in the DraftKings price (+1400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- CHI · TE
Cole Kmet — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.29Recent average 0.29 over 16 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +650Cole Kmet scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 14 games last season (0.29 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 29% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cole Kmet did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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