New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026
The pick
Take Detroit Lions -7
Detroit Lions is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 7 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: medium
The betting line
DET -6.5
Sportsbooks make Detroit Lions the favorite by 6.5. Expected combined score: 47.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
New York Jets20
Detroit Lions29
Final score
New York Jets24
Detroit Lions31
Fox — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026
Post-game: Lions Top Jets 31-24, Resulting in a Push
On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Detroit Lions held off the New York Jets 31–24. With Detroit tracked as a 7-point favorite when we published, the final seven-point margin landed directly on the number, resulting in a push. Because the final outcome matched the line, the tracked pick registers as void and does not count as a win or a loss on our ledger.
Our model projected a 29–20 Detroit victory, carrying a medium rating on the Lions to cover. It read Detroit's offensive ceiling well, coming within two points of the Lions' actual 31-point output and correctly anticipating the home side controlling the game script.
Where the model missed was underestimating New York's ability to keep pace. The Jets found four more points than our 20-point projection, generating just enough offense to stay within a single possession and deny the Lions a clean cover. It is a reminder of how tight early-season lines can be when a single late score swings a projected cover into a push.
Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026
Preview: New York Jets at Detroit Lions projection
New York Jets visit Detroit Lions in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads NYJ 20 – DET 29, a 9-point edge to Detroit Lions. DraftKings has DET -7 with a total of 48.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Detroit Lions -7 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated medium by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 20–29 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — Anytime touchdown: Yes-130DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 8:18 AM EDT · result win
- Isaac TeSlaa — Anytime touchdown: Yes+425DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 6:06 PM EDT · result loss
- Garrett Wilson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+170DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 6:07 AM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- DET · RB
Jahmyr Gibbs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.28Recent average 0.79 over 19 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -260Jahmyr Gibbs scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 10 of 17 games last season (1.28 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 79% chance to score, against 72% in the DraftKings price (-260), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jahmyr Gibbs scored 3 touchdowns
- NYJ · TE
Kenyon Sadiq — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +425Kenyon Sadiq scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 19% in the DraftKings price (+425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Kenyon Sadiq scored a touchdown
- NYJ · RB
Braelon Allen — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +270Braelon Allen scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 2 games last season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+270), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Braelon Allen did not score a touchdown
- DET · WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.32Recent average 0.71 over 19 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -130Amon-Ra St. Brown scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 7 of 17 games last season (1.32 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 71% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored a touchdown
- DET · WR
Isaac TeSlaa — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 13 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +425Isaac TeSlaa scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 6 of 12 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 19% in the DraftKings price (+425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Isaac TeSlaa did not score a touchdown
- NYJ · WR
Garrett Wilson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.55Recent average 0.55 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +170Garrett Wilson scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 3 of 5 games last season (0.55 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 55% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Garrett Wilson scored a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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