New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Post-game analysis · Sunday, October 4, 2026
The pick
Take Chicago Bears -3.5
Chicago Bears is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 3.5 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 4, 2026 · 6:26 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: medium
The betting line
CHI -3.5
Sportsbooks make Chicago Bears the favorite by 3.5. Expected combined score: 43.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
New York Jets19
Chicago Bears24
Final score
New York Jets12
Chicago Bears23
Pick covered
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Post-game analysis · Oct 4, 2026
Post-game: Bears cover against Jets in Week 4 win
On Sunday, October 4, 2026, the Chicago Bears secured a 23–12 victory over the New York Jets, comfortably covering the tracked DraftKings spread of -3.5. Our model had recommended a medium-rated play on Chicago, projecting a 24–19 win. The 11-point actual margin delivered a clear win for the pick.
The model accurately gauged Chicago's baseline form, nearly hitting their offensive output spot-on by projecting 24 points against the 23 they scored. By leaning into the home favorite over the market number, the projection properly anticipated Chicago's ability to pull away by more than a single possession.
Where the model missed was in overestimating New York's offensive efficiency. It anticipated a 19-point showing from the Jets, but Chicago's defense held them to just 12, keeping the combined score well under the 43.5 closing total. While that defensive suppression worked in favor of the spread cover, it highlights where our early-season scoring expectations were slightly too generous to the visitors.
Matchup preview · Oct 4, 2026
Preview: New York Jets at Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears host the New York Jets this Sunday in a Week 4 matchup where our statistical model sees a slight edge for the home side. The model projects a 24–19 victory for Chicago, pointing toward a relatively tight contest against the market total of 43.5.
Our pick is Chicago at -3.5, which is the tracked DraftKings spread we took. With the model forecasting a five-point win for the Bears, Chicago covers that 3.5-point line in the baseline projection, creating a modest statistical edge in favor of the home favorite.
This forecast carries a medium rating from our model. The projection relies exclusively on regular-season data with preseason results excluded, blending team performance metrics with a 65% weight on the market baseline. While statistical projections cannot account for every game-day variable or provide certainties, the numbers point to Chicago having a viable path to cover the tracked spread.
How the model got here
Projected 19–24 away–home (week 4), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Rome Odunze over 27.5 receiving yards-110DraftKings line 27.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- NYJ · WR
Garrett Wilson under 77.5 receiving yards
We project 57Recent average 57 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -113Garrett Wilson has averaged 67 receiving yards over 2 games this season and 48 across 2 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 77.5 (-113), and our model projects 57 — 20 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Garrett Wilson 27 receiving yards
- CHI · WR
Kalif Raymond over 33.5 receiving yards
We project 60Recent average 60 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -115Kalif Raymond has averaged 60 receiving yards over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 33.5 (-115), and our model projects 60 — 27 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Kalif Raymond 6 receiving yards
- CHI · WR
Kalif Raymond over 3.5 receptions
We project 6.2Recent average 6.2 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -108Kalif Raymond has averaged 6.2 receptions over 3 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-108), and our model projects 6.2 — 2.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Kalif Raymond 2 receptions
- NYJ · WR
Garrett Wilson under 6.5 receptions
We project 4.5Recent average 4.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -105Garrett Wilson has averaged 5.5 receptions over 2 games this season and 3.5 across 2 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 6.5 (-105), and our model projects 4.5 — 2 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Garrett Wilson 3 receptions
- NYJ · RB
Braelon Allen — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.75Recent average 0.75 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +125Braelon Allen scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Braelon Allen did not score a touchdown
- CHI · WR
Rome Odunze over 27.5 receiving yards
We project 46Recent average 46 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110Rome Odunze has averaged 47 receiving yards over 2 games this season and 45 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 27.5 (-110), and our model projects 46 — 18 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Rome Odunze 94 receiving yards
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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