New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
Post-game analysis · Monday, September 21, 2026
The pick
Take Los Angeles Rams -7
Los Angeles Rams is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 7 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
LAR -6.5
Sportsbooks make Los Angeles Rams the favorite by 6.5. Expected combined score: 47.5
DraftKings · updated Mon, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
New York Giants20
Los Angeles Rams28
Final score
New York Giants6
Los Angeles Rams28
Pick covered
ESPN, ABC — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 21, 2026
Post-game: Rams Pull Away to Cover Against Giants
On Monday, September 21, 2026, the Los Angeles Rams took down the New York Giants 28-6, delivering a straightforward win for our tracked pick on the Rams at -7. Los Angeles dictated terms throughout the night, easily clearing the touchdown margin against an overmatched New York squad.
The model's baseline was remarkably accurate regarding the home offense, projecting exactly 28 points for Los Angeles. Despite assigning only a low-confidence rating due to the early-season sample and heavy market anchoring, the projection correctly leaned toward the Rams covering the full touchdown spread.
Where the model proved overly generous was in its assessment of New York's offense. It projected the Giants to put up 20 points, but New York struggled to sustain drives and mustered just two field goals against a disciplined Rams defense. While the total score ended well below market and model expectations, the defensive stand secured a decisive cover on our tracked number.
Matchup preview · Sep 21, 2026
Preview: New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams projection
New York Giants visit Los Angeles Rams in NFL on Monday, September 21, 2026. Our projection reads NYG 20 – LAR 28, a 8-point edge to Los Angeles Rams. DraftKings has LAR -7 with a total of 48.5.
This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Los Angeles Rams -7 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T23:07:34+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 20–28 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Jaxson Dart over 30.5 rushing yards-113DraftKings line 30.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:08 PM EDT · result pending
- Matthew Stafford under 2.5 passing touchdowns-221DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Cam Skattebo over 50.5 rushing yards-110DraftKings line 50.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:08 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- NYG · WR
Malik Nabers under 5.5 receptions
We project 4.3Recent average 4.3 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -105Malik Nabers has averaged 6 receptions over 1 game this season and 3.5 across 2 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 5.5 (-105), and our model projects 4.3 — 1.3 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Malik Nabers 1 receptions
- LAR · WR
Puka Nacua over 87.5 receiving yards
We project 98Recent average 98 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -112Puka Nacua has averaged 74 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 108 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 87.5 (-112), and our model projects 98 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- LAR · WR
Davante Adams over 3.5 receptions
We project 3.9Recent average 3.9 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -138Davante Adams has averaged 3 receptions over 1 game this season and 4.3 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-138), and our model projects 3.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Davante Adams 8 receptions
- NYG · QB
Jaxson Dart over 30.5 rushing yards
We project 43Recent average 43 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113Jaxson Dart has averaged 54 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 38 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 30.5 (-113), and our model projects 43 — 12 above the number, so the play is the over.
- LAR · QB
Matthew Stafford under 2.5 passing touchdowns
We project 2Recent average 2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -221Matthew Stafford has averaged 0 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 2.8 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-221), and our model projects 2 — 0.5 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Matthew Stafford 4 passing touchdowns
- NYG · RB
Cam Skattebo over 50.5 rushing yards
We project 61Recent average 61 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110Cam Skattebo has averaged 81 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 52 across 7 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 50.5 (-110), and our model projects 61 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cam Skattebo 36 rushing yards
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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