Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

NO 20 – DET 30

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: high

The betting line

DET -7

Sportsbooks make Detroit Lions the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 49.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

New Orleans Saints logo New Orleans Saints20

Detroit Lions logo Detroit Lions30

Final score

New Orleans Saints logo New Orleans Saints30

Detroit Lions logo Detroit Lions31

Pick missed

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions projection

New Orleans Saints visit Detroit Lions in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads NO 21 – DET 29, a 8-point edge to Detroit Lions. DraftKings has DET -7 with a total of 49.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 274 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 20–30 away–home (week 1), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: high. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Devaughn Vele over 3.5 receptions
NO · WR
We project 4.2Recent average 4.2 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +103
Devaughn Vele has averaged 4.2 receptions over 5 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 3.5 at DraftKings (+103), and our model projects 4.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Devaughn Vele 7 receptions
Juwan Johnson over 42.5 receiving yards
NO · TE
We project 63Recent average 63 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109
Juwan Johnson has averaged 63 receiving yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 42.5 at DraftKings (-109), and our model projects 63 — 21 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Juwan Johnson 54 receiving yards
Jahmyr Gibbs over 30.5 receiving yards
DET · RB
We project 44Recent average 44 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112
Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 44 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 30.5 at DraftKings (-112), and our model projects 44 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jahmyr Gibbs 30 receiving yards
Jameson Williams over 3.5 receptions
DET · WR
We project 4.9Recent average 4.9 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -139
Jameson Williams has averaged 4.9 receptions over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 3.5 at DraftKings (-139), and our model projects 4.9 — 1.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jameson Williams 4 receptions
Jameson Williams over 58.5 receiving yards
DET · WR
We project 82Recent average 82 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111
Jameson Williams has averaged 82 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 58.5 at DraftKings (-111), and our model projects 82 — 23 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jameson Williams 45 receiving yards
Devaughn Vele over 39.5 receiving yards
NO · WR
We project 54Recent average 54 over 5 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Devaughn Vele has averaged 54 receiving yards over 5 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 39.5 at DraftKings (-114), and our model projects 54 — 14 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Devaughn Vele 69 receiving yards