Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 20, 2026Final

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take Baltimore Ravens -8.5

Baltimore Ravens is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 8.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

BAL -8.5

Sportsbooks make Baltimore Ravens the favorite by 8.5. Expected combined score: 45.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

New Orleans Saints logo New Orleans Saints19

Baltimore Ravens logo Baltimore Ravens28

Final score

New Orleans Saints logo New Orleans Saints24

Baltimore Ravens logo Baltimore Ravens17

Pick missed

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026

Preview: New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens projection

New Orleans Saints visit Baltimore Ravens in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads NO 19 – BAL 28, a 9-point edge to Baltimore Ravens. DraftKings has BAL -8.5 with a total of 46.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Baltimore Ravens -8.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T17:07:55+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 19–28 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 45.5 — Over -105 / Under -115.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 47 · Over win probability 53.9%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the projection was not made by the league's active public version.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Tyler Shough over 242.5 passing yards-113DraftKings line 242.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result win
Derrick Henry over 87.5 rushing yards-114DraftKings line 87.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result loss
Chris Olave over 72.5 receiving yards-111DraftKings line 72.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result win
Zay Flowers — Anytime touchdown: Yes+140DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result pending

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing touchdowns
BAL · QB
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -106
Lamar Jackson has averaged 1.2 passing touchdowns over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-106), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.3 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Lamar Jackson 1 passing touchdowns
Noah Fant — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NO · TE
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750
Noah Fant has scored in 1 of his last 1 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Tyler Shough over 242.5 passing yards
NO · QB
We project 334Recent average 283 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
Tyler Shough has averaged 283 passing yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 242.5 (-113), and our model projects 334 — 91 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Tyler Shough 252 passing yards
Derrick Henry over 87.5 rushing yards
BAL · RB
We project 120Recent average 120 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Derrick Henry has averaged 120 rushing yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 87.5 (-114), and our model projects 120 — 33 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Derrick Henry 68 rushing yards
Chris Olave over 72.5 receiving yards
NO · WR
We project 102Recent average 102 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111
Chris Olave has averaged 102 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 72.5 (-111), and our model projects 102 — 29 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Chris Olave 86 receiving yards
Zay Flowers — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BAL · WR
We project 0.77Recent average 0.77 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +140
Zay Flowers has scored in 5 of his last 10 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 54% chance to score, against 42% in the DraftKings price (+140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.