Post-game analysisNFLWednesday, September 9, 2026Final

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Post-game analysis · Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

NE 22 – SEA 23

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: medium

The betting line

SEA -3

Sportsbooks make Seattle Seahawks the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 44.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 7:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

New England Patriots logo New England Patriots22

Seattle Seahawks logo Seattle Seahawks23

Final score

New England Patriots logo New England Patriots10

Seattle Seahawks logo Seattle Seahawks13

Pick missed

NBC — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 9, 2026

Post-game: Patriots at Seahawks

On Wednesday, September 9, 2026, the Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots 13-10. Backing New England at +3 against the tracked DraftKings spread did not yield a winning ticket, as the three-point defeat landed directly on the market margin and failed to cover.

The model rightly anticipated a fiercely contested one-possession game, having projected Seattle to edge out New England 23-22. Where the forecast missed was the scoring environment. Rather than threatening the 44.5-point total, both offenses struggled to finish drives, turning what the model expected to be a balanced offensive matchup into a low-scoring defensive grind.

Backing the underdog on a key number without a half-point hook left our medium-rated lean empty-handed. While the model had a reasonable read on how closely matched these two teams were, overestimating early-season offensive output proved costly. We will feed these Week 1 performance baselines back into the system as we recalibrate for the weeks ahead.

Matchup preview · Sep 9, 2026

Preview: New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks projection

New England Patriots visit Seattle Seahawks in NFL on Wednesday, September 9, 2026. Our projection reads NE 22 – SEA 23, a 1-point edge to Seattle Seahawks. DraftKings has SEA -3 with a total of 44.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. No regular-season games have been completed yet this year, so last season's regular-season results carry the team ratings, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 272 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 22–23 away–home (week 1), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Hunter Henry over 33.5 receiving yards
NE · TE
We project 40Recent average 40 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -109
Hunter Henry has averaged 40 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 33.5 at DraftKings (-109), and our model projects 40 — 7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Hunter Henry 26 receiving yards
Rhamondre Stevenson under 3.5 receptions
NE · RB
We project 2.9Recent average 2.9 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -133
Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 2.9 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 3.5 at DraftKings (-133), and our model projects 2.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Rhamondre Stevenson 5 receptions
TreVeyon Henderson over 19 rushing yards
NE · RB
We project 42Recent average 42 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112
TreVeyon Henderson has averaged 42 rushing yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 19 at DraftKings (-112), and our model projects 42 — 23 above the number, so the play is the over.
Cooper Kupp over 2.5 receptions
SEA · WR
We project 3.6Recent average 3.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -141
Cooper Kupp has averaged 3.6 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 2.5 at DraftKings (-141), and our model projects 3.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cooper Kupp 2 receptions
AJ Barner over 2.5 receptions
SEA · TE
We project 3.4Recent average 3.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -154
AJ Barner has averaged 3.4 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 2.5 at DraftKings (-154), and our model projects 3.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: AJ Barner 2 receptions
Cooper Kupp over 30 receiving yards
SEA · WR
We project 39Recent average 39 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
Cooper Kupp has averaged 39 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 30 at DraftKings (-113), and our model projects 39 — 9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cooper Kupp 35 receiving yards