Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 27, 2026Final

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026

The pick

Take Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 2.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

JAX -3

Sportsbooks make Jacksonville Jaguars the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 45.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

New England Patriots logo New England Patriots21

Jacksonville Jaguars logo Jacksonville Jaguars24

Final score

New England Patriots logo New England Patriots6

Jacksonville Jaguars logo Jacksonville Jaguars35

Pick covered

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026

Post-game: Jaguars cruise past Patriots in Week 3 blowout

On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Jacksonville Jaguars dominated the New England Patriots 35-6, comfortably securing a win for our tracked pick on Jacksonville -2.5. Jacksonville controlled the game throughout, turning a short line into an effortless cover.

Our statistical model correctly identified value on the Jaguars laying less than a field goal at home. Even with a conservative, low-confidence rating in the early season and significant weight placed on market baselines, the model's slight lean toward Jacksonville proved to be on the right side.

What the model missed was the sheer scale of the blowout. It projected a tightly contested 24–21 finish, anticipating far more offensive resistance from New England and a much closer margin. Instead, Jacksonville’s defense completely neutralized the Patriots, holding them to just six points while the offense comfortably cleared our projected ceiling. We take the win against the spread, but the lopsided nature of the contest was well outside our modeled range.

Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026

Preview: New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars projection

New England Patriots visit Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads NE 21 – JAX 24, a 3-point edge to Jacksonville Jaguars. DraftKings has JAX -2.5 with a total of 45.5.

This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 21–24 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

TreVeyon Henderson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+155DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:18 AM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Parker Washington — Anytime touchdown: Yes
JAX · WR
We project 0.45Recent average 0.45 over 12 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +180
Parker Washington scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 4 of 10 games last season (0.45 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 45% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+180), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Parker Washington scored a touchdown
Josh Cameron — Anytime touchdown: Yes
JAX · WR
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1800
Josh Cameron scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 5% in the DraftKings price (+1800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Josh Cameron scored a touchdown
Eli Raridon — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NE · TE
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +900
Eli Raridon scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 10% in the DraftKings price (+900), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Efton Chism III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NE · WR
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +2000
Efton Chism III scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 2 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 5% in the DraftKings price (+2000), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Efton Chism III did not score a touchdown
Bhayshul Tuten — Anytime touchdown: Yes
JAX · RB
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 12 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +120
Bhayshul Tuten scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 5 of 10 games last season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 45% in the DraftKings price (+120), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Bhayshul Tuten scored a touchdown
TreVeyon Henderson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NE · RB
We project 0.75Recent average 0.5 over 15 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +155
TreVeyon Henderson scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 4 of 14 games last season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 39% in the DraftKings price (+155), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: TreVeyon Henderson did not score a touchdown