New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Post-game analysis · Sunday, October 4, 2026
The pick
Take Buffalo Bills -7
Buffalo Bills is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 7 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 4, 2026 · 6:25 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
BUF -7
Sportsbooks make Buffalo Bills the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 49.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
New England Patriots21
Buffalo Bills29
Final score
New England Patriots29
Buffalo Bills26
Pick missed
CBS — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Oct 4, 2026
Post-game: Patriots Stun Bills in Week 4 Road Win
On Sunday, October 4, 2026, the Buffalo Bills fell 29–26 to the New England Patriots, failing to cover the tracked -7 DraftKings spread. Our statistical model favored Buffalo to win by eight and leaned into the home favorite with a low-confidence rating. Instead, New England walked away with an outright road victory, handing our tracked pick a clear loss.
The model came reasonably close to assessing Buffalo's scoring baseline, projecting 29 points against the 26 they produced. Where the simulation failed was on the other side of the ball. We anticipated New England managing only 21 points, but the Patriots consistently sustained drives, exploited defensive lapses, and generated far more offense than our baseline expected.
Our low-rated lean banked on Buffalo's regular-season efficiency creating enough late separation to cover the touchdown margin. New England proved far more resilient than projected, thoroughly beating both the spread and market consensus. It was an outright miss, and we will update the numbers accordingly heading into next week.
Matchup preview · Oct 4, 2026
Preview: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots this Sunday in an early-season AFC East clash for Week 4. DraftKings posted Buffalo as a 7-point home favorite, with the game total pegged at 50.5 points.
Our statistical model forecasts a 29–21 victory for Buffalo. Relying strictly on regular-season performance data and placing a 65% weight on the market anchor, the model estimates a margin approaching ten points. That baseline projection points toward Buffalo having enough offensive balance to cover the touchdown requirement against New England's defense.
With the 29–21 scoreline clearing the tracked line, our pick is the Buffalo Bills at -7, the number we took. However, because the projected edge over the market spread is narrow, the model assigns this selection a low confidence rating. It remains a statistical projection rather than a certainty.
How the model got here
Projected 21–29 away–home (week 4), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Ty Johnson over 1.5 receptions-136DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:08 PM EDT · result win
- TreVeyon Henderson over 41.5 rushing yards-110DraftKings line 41.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:08 PM EDT · result win
- Joshua Palmer — Anytime touchdown: Yes+600DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Rhamondre Stevenson over 31.5 rushing yards-112DraftKings line 31.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:08 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- BUF · WR
DJ Moore over 48.5 receiving yards
We project 82Recent average 82 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -114DJ Moore has averaged 82 receiving yards over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 48.5 (-114), and our model projects 82 — 34 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: DJ Moore 11 receiving yards
- NE · WR
Efton Chism III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1400Efton Chism III scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 2 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 7% in the DraftKings price (+1400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Efton Chism III scored a touchdown
- BUF · RB
Ty Johnson over 1.5 receptions
We project 2.7Recent average 2.7 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -136Ty Johnson has averaged 4 receptions over 1 game this season and 2.2 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-136), and our model projects 2.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ty Johnson 2 receptions
- NE · RB
TreVeyon Henderson over 41.5 rushing yards
We project 67Recent average 67 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110TreVeyon Henderson has averaged 76 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 63 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 41.5 (-110), and our model projects 67 — 25 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: TreVeyon Henderson 42 rushing yards
- BUF · WR
Joshua Palmer — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +600Joshua Palmer scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 0 of 7 games last season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Joshua Palmer did not score a touchdown
- NE · RB
Rhamondre Stevenson over 31.5 rushing yards
We project 42Recent average 42 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 37 rushing yards over 3 games this season and 51 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 31.5 (-112), and our model projects 42 — 11 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Rhamondre Stevenson 47 rushing yards
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
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