Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 27, 2026Final

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026

The pick

Take Minnesota Vikings +1.5

Minnesota Vikings is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

MIN -1.5

Sportsbooks make Minnesota Vikings the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 42.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Minnesota Vikings logo Minnesota Vikings23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo Tampa Bay Buccaneers24

Final score

Minnesota Vikings logo Minnesota Vikings23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo Tampa Bay Buccaneers16

Pick covered

Fox — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026

Post-game: Vikings Beat Buccaneers to Cover Road Spread

On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Minnesota Vikings earned a 23–16 road victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The result gave us a straightforward win against our tracked pick of Minnesota +1.5, as the Vikings not only covered the DraftKings number but took the game outright.

Our statistical model anticipated a much tighter margin than the market did, leaning onto the underdog in a projected 24–23 contest. It read Minnesota’s offensive baseline exceptionally well, hitting the Vikings' 23-point output right on the number and validating our medium-rated edge on the away side staying within the spread.

Where the projection missed was on Tampa Bay’s scoring ability. The model gave the Buccaneers credit for 24 points, but Minnesota’s defense held them to just 16. While we slightly misjudged Tampa Bay's offensive ceiling, prioritizing the road underdog in a close matchup proved to be the right side of the tracked line.

Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026

Preview: Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers projection

Minnesota Vikings visit Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads MIN 23 – TB 24, a 1-point edge to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. DraftKings has TB -1.5 with a total of 45.5.

This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Minnesota Vikings +1.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated medium by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 23–24 away–home (week 3), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Baker Mayfield — Anytime touchdown: Yes+600DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 10:07 AM EDT · result loss
Bucky Irving — Anytime touchdown: Yes+110DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 10:07 AM EDT · result loss
Cade Otton over 27.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 27.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 6:17 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

T.J. Hockenson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIN · TE
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 15 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +285
T.J. Hockenson scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 2 of 13 games last season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+285), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: T.J. Hockenson did not score a touchdown
Justin Jefferson under 5.5 receptions
MIN · WR
We project 5.2Recent average 5.2 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -102
Justin Jefferson has averaged 5.3 receptions over 2 games this season and 5.1 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 5.5 (-102), and our model projects 5.2 — 0.3 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Justin Jefferson 2 receptions
Justin Jefferson under 68.5 receiving yards
MIN · WR
We project 66Recent average 66 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -111
Justin Jefferson has averaged 72 receiving yards over 2 games this season and 59 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 68.5 (-111), and our model projects 66 — 3 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Justin Jefferson 32 receiving yards
Baker Mayfield — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TB · QB
We project 0.36Recent average 0.36 over 13 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +600
Baker Mayfield scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 12 games last season (0.36 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 36% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Baker Mayfield did not score a touchdown
Bucky Irving — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TB · RB
We project 0.65Recent average 0.65 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +110
Bucky Irving scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 4 of 8 games last season (0.65 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 65% chance to score, against 48% in the DraftKings price (+110), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Bucky Irving did not score a touchdown
Cade Otton over 27.5 receiving yards
TB · TE
We project 35Recent average 35 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Cade Otton has averaged 26 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 39 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 27.5 (-114), and our model projects 35 — 8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cade Otton 56 receiving yards