Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026
The pick
Take Minnesota Vikings +5.5
Minnesota Vikings is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 5.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
CHI -4.5
Sportsbooks make Chicago Bears the favorite by 4.5. Expected combined score: 46.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
Minnesota Vikings22
Chicago Bears27
Final score
Minnesota Vikings9
Chicago Bears3
Pick covered
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Post-game analysis · Sep 20, 2026
Post-game: Vikings Cover and Upset Bears in Low-Scoring Slugfest
On Sunday, September 20, 2026, the Minnesota Vikings ground out a 9–3 victory over the Chicago Bears, delivering a win for our tracked pick on Minnesota +5.5. The Vikings stayed well inside the number and claimed an outright divisional win on the road.
Our low-rated model correctly identified value in backing Minnesota to keep things closer than the market expected. It anticipated a tight, one-possession contest, and the Vikings’ defense ensured Chicago never established any cushion or offensive momentum.
However, the model was wide of the mark on the scoring environment. It projected a 27–22 Bears win with combined scoring near 49 points, completely missing the defensive trench battle that produced just 12 total points. Backing Minnesota +5.5 cashed comfortably, but the actual path to the cover was far lower-scoring than our statistical baseline anticipated.
Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026
Preview: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears projection
Minnesota Vikings visit Chicago Bears in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads MIN 22 – CHI 27, a 5-point edge to Chicago Bears. DraftKings has CHI -5.5 with a total of 48.5.
This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Minnesota Vikings +5.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T17:07:55+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 22–27 away–home (week 2), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Kyle Monangai over 37.5 rushing yards-113DraftKings line 37.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 9:18 PM EDT · result win
- D'Andre Swift over 59.5 rushing yards-115DraftKings line 59.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 9:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Colston Loveland under 4.5 receptions-142DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 9:18 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- MIN · WR
Justin Jefferson under 75.5 receiving yards
We project 69Recent average 69 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -112Justin Jefferson has averaged 92 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 59 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 75.5 (-112), and our model projects 69 — 6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Justin Jefferson 55 receiving yards
- MIN · WR
Justin Jefferson over 5.5 receptions
We project 5.9Recent average 5.9 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -148Justin Jefferson has averaged 8 receptions over 1 game this season and 5.1 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 5.5 (-148), and our model projects 5.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Justin Jefferson 3 receptions
- MIN · QB
Carson Wentz over 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 5 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +133Carson Wentz has averaged 3 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 1 across 4 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (+133), and our model projects 1.6 — 0.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Carson Wentz 0 passing touchdowns
- CHI · RB
Kyle Monangai over 37.5 rushing yards
We project 65Recent average 65 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113Kyle Monangai has averaged 100 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 50 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 37.5 (-113), and our model projects 65 — 28 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Kyle Monangai 47 rushing yards
- CHI · RB
D'Andre Swift over 59.5 rushing yards
We project 85Recent average 85 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115D'Andre Swift has averaged 124 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 68 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 59.5 (-115), and our model projects 85 — 25 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: D'Andre Swift 45 rushing yards
- CHI · TE
Colston Loveland under 4.5 receptions
We project 2.8Recent average 2.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -142Colston Loveland has averaged 0 receptions over 1 game this season and 4.1 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-142), and our model projects 2.8 — 1.7 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Colston Loveland 1 receptions
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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