Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 20, 2026Final

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take San Francisco 49ers -13.5

San Francisco 49ers is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 13.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

SF -12.5

Sportsbooks make San Francisco 49ers the favorite by 12.5. Expected combined score: 44.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 4:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Miami Dolphins logo Miami Dolphins16

San Francisco 49ers logo San Francisco 49ers30

Final score

Miami Dolphins logo Miami Dolphins13

San Francisco 49ers logo San Francisco 49ers35

Pick covered

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026

Preview: Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers projection

Miami Dolphins visit San Francisco 49ers in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads MIA 16 – SF 30, a 14-point edge to San Francisco 49ers. DraftKings has SF -13.5 with a total of 45.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is San Francisco 49ers -13.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T23:07:34+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 16–30 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 44.5 — Over -115 / Under -105.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 46 · Over win probability 53.9%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the projection was not made by the league's active public version.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing touchdowns-184DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
De'Von Achane over 55.5 rushing yards-112DraftKings line 55.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:18 PM EDT · result win
Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions-136DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
Christian McCaffrey over 58.5 rushing yards-111DraftKings line 58.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Malik Washington under 3.5 receptions
MIA · WR
We project 2.9Recent average 2.9 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -163
Malik Washington has averaged 3 receptions over 1 game this season and 2.8 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-163), and our model projects 2.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Malik Washington 4 receptions
De'Von Achane over 3.5 receptions
MIA · RB
We project 3.8Recent average 3.8 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -157
De'Von Achane has averaged 4 receptions over 1 game this season and 3.7 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-157), and our model projects 3.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: De'Von Achane 3 receptions
Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing touchdowns
SF · QB
We project 2.5Recent average 2.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -184
Brock Purdy has averaged 3 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 2.2 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-184), and our model projects 2.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Brock Purdy 2 passing touchdowns
De'Von Achane over 55.5 rushing yards
MIA · RB
We project 74Recent average 74 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112
De'Von Achane has averaged 36 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 90 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 55.5 (-112), and our model projects 74 — 18 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: De'Von Achane 74 rushing yards
Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions
SF · RB
We project 5.5Recent average 5.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -136
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 5 receptions over 1 game this season and 5.7 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-136), and our model projects 5.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Christian McCaffrey 4 receptions
Christian McCaffrey over 58.5 rushing yards
SF · RB
We project 72Recent average 72 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 68 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 73 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 58.5 (-111), and our model projects 72 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Christian McCaffrey 23 rushing yards