Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

MIA 20 – LV 21

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: high

The betting line

LV -3

Sportsbooks make Las Vegas Raiders the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 40.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 3:48 PM EDT

Our projected score

Miami Dolphins logo Miami Dolphins20

Las Vegas Raiders logo Las Vegas Raiders21

Final score

Miami Dolphins logo Miami Dolphins13

Las Vegas Raiders logo Las Vegas Raiders27

Pick missed

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders projection

Miami Dolphins visit Las Vegas Raiders in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads MIA 21 – LV 20, a 1-point edge to Miami Dolphins. DraftKings has LV -3 with a total of 40.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. No regular-season games have been completed yet this year, so last season's regular-season results carry the team ratings, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 272 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 20–21 away–home (week 1), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: high. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Tre Tucker under 3.5 receptions
LV · WR
We project 2.8Recent average 2.8 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -126
Tre Tucker has averaged 2.8 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-126), and our model projects 2.8 — 0.7 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Tre Tucker 2 receptions
Greg Dulcich over 2.5 receptions
MIA · TE
We project 3Recent average 3 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -108
Greg Dulcich has averaged 3 receptions over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-108), and our model projects 3 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Greg Dulcich 2 receptions
Brock Bowers under 5.5 receptions
LV · TE
We project 4.7Recent average 4.7 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +111
Brock Bowers has averaged 4.7 receptions over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 5.5 (+111), and our model projects 4.7 — 0.8 below the number, so the play is the under.
De'Von Achane over 68.5 rushing yards
MIA · RB
We project 95Recent average 95 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
De'Von Achane has averaged 95 rushing yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 68.5 (-114), and our model projects 95 — 26 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: De'Von Achane 36 rushing yards
De'Von Achane under 4.5 receptions
MIA · RB
We project 3.3Recent average 3.3 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -146
De'Von Achane has averaged 3.3 receptions over 7 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 4.5 at DraftKings (-146), and our model projects 3.3 — 1.2 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: De'Von Achane 4 receptions
Brock Bowers under 64.5 receiving yards
LV · TE
We project 44Recent average 44 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Brock Bowers has averaged 44 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 64.5 (-110), and our model projects 44 — 20 below the number, so the play is the under.
Greg Dulcich over 25.5 receiving yards
MIA · TE
We project 39Recent average 39 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
Greg Dulcich has averaged 39 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 25.5 (-113), and our model projects 39 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Greg Dulcich 18 receiving yards