Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026
The pick
Take Denver Broncos +2.5
Denver Broncos is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 2.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
LAR -2.5
Sportsbooks make Los Angeles Rams the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 44.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Los Angeles Rams24
Denver Broncos22
Final score
Los Angeles Rams26
Denver Broncos30
Pick covered
NBC — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026
Post-game: Broncos Top Rams in Week 3, Covering the Number
On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Denver Broncos secured a 30–26 victory over the Los Angeles Rams at home. Our tracked pick on Denver +2.5 cashed with room to spare as the Broncos took the contest outright.
Our statistical model entered the week with a low-rated lean on Denver, projecting a tight 24–22 finish that kept the home underdog inside the number. The primary takeaway held up well: the market had shaded slightly too far toward Los Angeles on the road in early-season play, and Denver proved capable of hanging punch-for-punch.
Where the projection fell short was on the game script and offensive efficiency. We projected the Rams to edge out a narrow win and anticipated a total closer to 46 points, but both offenses exceeded expectations to combine for 56. Denver's ability to pull off the outright win outperformed our baseline, but backing the home side with the points proved to be the right side of the spread.
Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026
Preview: Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos projection
Los Angeles Rams visit Denver Broncos in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads LAR 24 – DEN 22, a 2-point edge to Los Angeles Rams. DraftKings has DEN +2.5 with a total of 46.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Denver Broncos +2.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 24–22 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns-126DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 12:42 AM EDT · result win
- Kyren Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes-130DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 12:42 AM EDT · result loss
- Kyren Williams over 55.5 rushing yards-112DraftKings line 55.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 12:42 AM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- DEN · WR
Jaylen Waddle over 57.5 receiving yards
We project 76Recent average 76 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -110Jaylen Waddle has averaged 76 receiving yards over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 57.5 (-110), and our model projects 76 — 18 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jaylen Waddle 10 receiving yards
- DEN · QB
Bo Nix under 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -151Bo Nix has averaged 1 passing touchdowns over 2 games this season and 1.4 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-151), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.3 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Bo Nix 2 passing touchdowns
- DEN · QB
Bo Nix over 212.5 passing yards
We project 226Recent average 226 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -113Bo Nix has averaged 216 passing yards over 2 games this season and 236 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 212.5 (-113), and our model projects 226 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bo Nix 186 passing yards
- LAR · QB
Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 2.5Recent average 2.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -126Matthew Stafford has averaged 2.2 passing touchdowns over 2 games this season and 2.8 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-126), and our model projects 2.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Matthew Stafford 2 passing touchdowns
- LAR · RB
Kyren Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.88Recent average 0.81 over 15 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -130Kyren Williams scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 8 of 13 games last season (0.88 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 81% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Kyren Williams did not score a touchdown
- LAR · RB
Kyren Williams over 55.5 rushing yards
We project 69Recent average 69 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112Kyren Williams has averaged 65 rushing yards over 2 games this season and 73 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 55.5 (-112), and our model projects 69 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Kyren Williams 88 rushing yards
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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