Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Post-game analysis · Sunday, October 4, 2026
The pick
Take Seattle Seahawks -7
Seattle Seahawks is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 7 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 4, 2026 · 6:26 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
SEA -7
Sportsbooks make Seattle Seahawks the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 42.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 4:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Los Angeles Chargers16
Seattle Seahawks27
Final score
Los Angeles Chargers23
Seattle Seahawks30
CBS — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Oct 4, 2026
Post-game: Seahawks Hold Off Chargers as Spread Pushes
On Sunday, October 4, 2026, the Seattle Seahawks secured a 30-23 home victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. Our model backed Seattle at -7 with a high rating, projecting a comfortable double-digit win. Because the final margin landed precisely on the seven-point number, the result goes down as a push against our tracked spread, which counts as neither a win nor a loss.
The model had a solid handle on Seattle’s offensive production. It projected the Seahawks to score 27 points, coming within a field goal of their actual 30-point performance and correctly anticipating that Seattle would control the game outright.
However, the projection underestimated the Chargers' attack. The model forecasted Los Angeles to manage just 16 points, but the visitors put up 23, staying within one score throughout the fourth quarter. That extra offensive output from Los Angeles erased the cushion our model expected, leaving the tracked line exactly matched at the final whistle.
Matchup preview · Oct 4, 2026
Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday for a Week 4 matchup. When we published our projections, DraftKings listed Seattle as a 7-point home favorite, with the game total set at 42.5 points.
Our statistical model forecasts a 27–16 victory for the Seahawks. That estimated 11-point margin provides a clear four-point cushion over the tracked spread of -7, while the 43 combined projected points align closely with the market total. The projection relies strictly on regular-season performance baselines, intentionally excluding preseason data to isolate true on-field efficiency.
Even with a heavy 65% weighting anchored to the betting market, the model identifies a 3.87-point edge in Seattle's favor, earning this pick a high model rating. While statistical models cannot account for every in-game variable or guarantee an outcome, the data suggests Seattle is well-positioned to cover the seven-point number we took.
How the model got here
Projected 16–27 away–home (week 4), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: high. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Seattle Seahawks -7
- DraftKings -7 · tracked Sun, 5:07 AM EDT
- Locked price -115
- Rating high
- Locked Oct 4, 6:26 AM EDT — before kickoff
- Result push
Players
- Ladd McConkey over 45.5 receiving yards-113DraftKings line 45.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions-135DraftKings line 6.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
- Ladd McConkey over 3.5 receptions-157DraftKings line 3.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 92.5 receiving yards-110DraftKings line 92.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
- Justin Herbert over 0.5 passing touchdowns-252DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result win
- Cooper Kupp over 24.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 24.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- LAC · WR
Ladd McConkey over 45.5 receiving yards
We project 58Recent average 58 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113Ladd McConkey has averaged 60 receiving yards over 3 games this season and 53 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 45.5 (-113), and our model projects 58 — 12 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ladd McConkey 0 receiving yards
- SEA · WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions
We project 8.2Recent average 8.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -135Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 9.1 receptions over 2 games this season and 7.3 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 6.5 (-135), and our model projects 8.2 — 1.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5 receptions
- LAC · WR
Ladd McConkey over 3.5 receptions
We project 4.4Recent average 4.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -157Ladd McConkey has averaged 4.5 receptions over 2 games this season and 4.3 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-157), and our model projects 4.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ladd McConkey 0 receptions
- SEA · WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 92.5 receiving yards
We project 116Recent average 116 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 125 receiving yards over 2 games this season and 106 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 92.5 (-110), and our model projects 116 — 23 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 76 receiving yards
- LAC · QB
Justin Herbert over 0.5 passing touchdowns
We project 1.2Recent average 1.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -252Justin Herbert has averaged 1 passing touchdowns over 3 games this season and 1.7 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-252), and our model projects 1.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Justin Herbert 1 passing touchdowns
- SEA · WR
Cooper Kupp over 24.5 receiving yards
We project 39Recent average 39 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114Cooper Kupp has averaged 41 receiving yards over 2 games this season and 37 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 24.5 (-114), and our model projects 39 — 14 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cooper Kupp 13 receiving yards
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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