Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026
The pick
Take Buffalo Bills -4.5
Buffalo Bills is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 4.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: medium
The betting line
BUF -7
Sportsbooks make Buffalo Bills the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 50.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Los Angeles Chargers22
Buffalo Bills28
Final score
Los Angeles Chargers16
Buffalo Bills24
Pick covered
Fox — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026
Post-game: Bills Cover Against Chargers in 24–16 Win
On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Buffalo Bills earned a 24–16 home victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, delivering a win on our tracked pick. We backed Buffalo at -4.5 on a medium rating, and the Bills' eight-point margin proved enough to clear the number we locked in.
The model correctly anticipated Buffalo controlling the matchup and covering the home spread. Our projection forecasted a 28–22 Bills victory—roughly a six-point margin—and the market lean toward Buffalo held up throughout the afternoon. Buffalo maintained a steady cushion, keeping the Chargers at arm's length down the stretch.
Where the projection drifted was on overall offensive volume. Both teams fell short of our forecasted scoring, combining for 40 total points against a projected 50. Los Angeles struggled to generate sustained drives, and Buffalo’s defense held up better than expected in early-season action. It goes down as a clean against-the-spread win, but the lower-than-projected total offers useful calibration data as sample sizes grow.
Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026
Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills projection
Los Angeles Chargers visit Buffalo Bills in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads LAC 22 – BUF 28, a 6-point edge to Buffalo Bills. DraftKings has BUF -4.5 with a total of 49.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Buffalo Bills -4.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated medium by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 22–28 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Omarion Hampton — Anytime touchdown: Yes-115DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Josh Allen — Anytime touchdown: Yes-135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 7:07 AM EDT · result win
- Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns-159DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 9:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Ladd McConkey — Anytime touchdown: Yes+220DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 9:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Oronde Gadsden — Anytime touchdown: Yes+310DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 9:07 AM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- BUF · WR
DJ Moore — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +175DJ Moore scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+175), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: DJ Moore did not score a touchdown
- LAC · RB
Omarion Hampton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.8Recent average 0.8 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115Omarion Hampton scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 3 of 5 games last season (0.8 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 80% chance to score, against 53% in the DraftKings price (-115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Omarion Hampton did not score a touchdown
- BUF · QB
Josh Allen — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.3Recent average 0.68 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -135Josh Allen scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 7 of 13 games last season (1.3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 68% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Josh Allen scored 2 touchdowns
- BUF · QB
Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 2Recent average 2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -159Josh Allen has averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns over 2 games this season and 1.5 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-159), and our model projects 2 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Josh Allen 0 passing touchdowns
- LAC · WR
Ladd McConkey — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.59Recent average 0.59 over 13 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +220Ladd McConkey scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 5 of 12 games last season (0.59 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 59% chance to score, against 31% in the DraftKings price (+220), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ladd McConkey did not score a touchdown
- LAC · TE
Oronde Gadsden — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.38Recent average 0.38 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +310Oronde Gadsden scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 3 of 12 games last season (0.38 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 38% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+310), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Oronde Gadsden did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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