PreviewNFLSunday, November 8, 2026Sun, 4:25 PM EST

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Game preview · Sunday, November 8, 2026

The pick

Take San Francisco 49ers -9.5

San Francisco 49ers is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 9.5 points.

Pick locked in: Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

Current market

Current market check pending

The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. A fresh read has not been computed yet.

Official pick: -9.5 · locked Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT
Latest DraftKings: -9.5 · Nov 7, 2026 · 11:08 PM EST

Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line, price and side exactly as they were locked.

The betting line

SF -9.5

Sportsbooks make San Francisco 49ers the favorite by 9.5. Expected combined score: 51.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:08 PM EST

Our projected score

Las Vegas Raiders logo Las Vegas Raiders19

San Francisco 49ers logo San Francisco 49ers30

Kickoff

Sun, 4:25 PM EST

Fox — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Nov 8, 2026

Preview: Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers host the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday in a Week 9 matchup where our statistical model points toward a multi-score home victory. Simulating the game using regular-season performance and current roster data, the model projects a final score of San Francisco 30, Las Vegas 19. That baseline outputs an expected total of 49 points, landing right around the market total of 48.5.

We tracked the DraftKings spread at San Francisco -9.5, which is the number we took for this game. With our projection calculating an 11-point margin of victory for the 49ers, the model indicates value on the home side to clear the line. Consequently, our official pick is on San Francisco to cover the 9.5 points.

This recommendation carries a medium model rating. The projection blends our team baseline ratings with a 50 percent market anchor, creating an estimated 1.5-point edge against the closing line. While mathematical modeling offers a structured perspective rather than a guaranteed outcome, the data leans toward San Francisco generating enough offensive efficiency to pull away.

Get an updated prediction

Live analysis — not an official tracked pick.

Our official recommendation above is locked to the line and price we published. If you see a different number at your sportsbook, enter that user-entered changed line here to see how our stored projection leans against it. Nothing you type is saved, sent, or added to our record.

Side

Spread for SF

For example -3.5 or +6. Enter 0 for a pick’em. Range -100 to +100.

American odds

Whole number, -110 or +145 style. Price context only.

How the model got here

Projected 19–30 away–home (week 9), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 50% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Ashton Jeanty over 26.5 rushing yards-115DraftKings line 26.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 5:18 AM EST · result pending
George Kittle — Anytime touchdown: Yes-115DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 5:18 AM EST · result pending

Each number and price is the DraftKings figure recorded before kickoff and never changed afterwards. Times are Eastern.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ashton Jeanty — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LV · RB
We project 0.81Recent average 0.57 over 16 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +110
Ashton Jeanty scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 5 of 13 games last season (0.81 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 57% chance to score, against 48% in the DraftKings price (+110), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Brock Bowers — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LV · TE
We project 0.69Recent average 0.5 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +145
Brock Bowers scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 4 of 8 games last season (0.69 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 41% in the DraftKings price (+145), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Christian McCaffrey — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SF · RB
We project 1.18Recent average 0.79 over 16 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -260
Christian McCaffrey scored in 4 of 5 games this season and in 8 of 11 games last season (1.18 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 79% chance to score, against 72% in the DraftKings price (-260), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Brock Purdy under 2.5 passing touchdowns
SF · QB
We project 2.2Recent average 2.2 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -173
Brock Purdy has averaged 2.2 passing touchdowns over 6 games this season and 2.3 across 7 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-173), and our model projects 2.2 — 0.3 below the number, so the play is the under.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Ashton Jeanty over 26.5 rushing yards
LV · RB
We project 47Recent average 47 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115
Ashton Jeanty has averaged 46 rushing yards over 5 games this season and 53 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 26.5 (-115), and our model projects 47 — 21 above the number, so the play is the over.
George Kittle — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SF · TE
We project 0.82Recent average 0.66 over 15 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115
George Kittle scored in 4 of 6 games this season and in 5 of 9 games last season (0.82 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 66% chance to score, against 53% in the DraftKings price (-115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.