Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026
The pick
Take New Orleans Saints -3
New Orleans Saints is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 3 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
NO -3
Sportsbooks make New Orleans Saints the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 43.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Las Vegas Raiders21
New Orleans Saints25
Final score
Las Vegas Raiders35
New Orleans Saints27
Pick missed
CBS — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026
Post-game: Raiders Upset Saints, Handing Our Pick a Loss
On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Las Vegas Raiders defeated the New Orleans Saints 35-27, handing our model a clear loss. We backed New Orleans to cover as a 3-point home favorite on DraftKings with a low-confidence rating, but the Saints failed to protect their home field or stay inside the number.
Our statistical model anticipated a relatively close game, projecting a 25-21 New Orleans victory. While it correctly identified that the margin would remain within single digits, it completely missed the game's offensive trajectory. The projection was built around a modest scoring environment, yet both teams easily surpassed expectations as Las Vegas generated explosive plays throughout the afternoon.
Ultimately, the model gave too much credit to the Saints' defensive floor and underestimated the Raiders' capability on the road. We track these results transparently to refine our early-season weighting, and we will carry these defensive realities into next week's calibrations.
Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026
Preview: Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints projection
Las Vegas Raiders visit New Orleans Saints in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads LV 21 – NO 25, a 4-point edge to New Orleans Saints. DraftKings has NO -3 with a total of 45.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is New Orleans Saints -3 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 21–25 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Chris Olave — Anytime touchdown: Yes+175DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 11:18 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- LV · RB
Ashton Jeanty — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.07Recent average 0.63 over 16 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -115Ashton Jeanty scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 7 of 15 games last season (1.07 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 53% in the DraftKings price (-115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ashton Jeanty did not score a touchdown
- NO · TE
Noah Fant — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650Noah Fant scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Noah Fant scored 2 touchdowns
- NO · QB
Tyler Shough over 249.5 passing yards
We project 281Recent average 281 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -112Tyler Shough has averaged 324 passing yards over 2 games this season and 238 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 249.5 (-112), and our model projects 281 — 32 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Tyler Shough 255 passing yards
- LV · TE
Brock Bowers — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.7Recent average 0.4 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +200Brock Bowers scored in 4 of 10 games last season (0.7 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 40% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Brock Bowers scored a touchdown
- LV · WR
Tre Tucker — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.32Recent average 0.32 over 17 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +270Tre Tucker scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 2 of 15 games last season (0.32 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 32% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+270), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Tre Tucker did not score a touchdown
- NO · WR
Chris Olave — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.56Recent average 0.48 over 15 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +175Chris Olave scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 6 of 13 games last season (0.56 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 48% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+175), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Chris Olave did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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