Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 27, 2026Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026

The pick

Take Miami Dolphins +8.5

Miami Dolphins is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 8.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

KC -11.5

Sportsbooks make Kansas City Chiefs the favorite by 11.5. Expected combined score: 46.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Kansas City Chiefs logo Kansas City Chiefs26

Miami Dolphins logo Miami Dolphins18

Final score

Kansas City Chiefs logo Kansas City Chiefs24

Miami Dolphins logo Miami Dolphins10

Pick missed

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026

Post-game: Chiefs Pull Away from Dolphins to Beat Spread

On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Miami Dolphins 24–10. We backed Miami at +8.5 on DraftKings, but the Dolphins were unable to keep the contest within single digits, resulting in a loss against our tracked number.

Our model was fairly accurate regarding Kansas City's output, projecting the Chiefs to score 26 points against the 24 they actually produced. Where the projection fell short was on Miami's side of the ball. The model expected the Dolphins to muster 18 points, but their offense stalled for long stretches, finishing with just 10.

With the model assigning only a low rating and a tiny statistical edge to Miami beforehand, it rightly treated this matchup with caution. Even so, banking on the Dolphins' offense to do enough to protect an 8.5-point cushion proved to be the wrong call as Kansas City maintained control throughout the second half.

Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026

Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins projection

Kansas City Chiefs visit Miami Dolphins in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads KC 26 – MIA 18, a 8-point edge to Kansas City Chiefs. DraftKings has MIA +8.5 with a total of 44.5.

This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Miami Dolphins +8.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 26–18 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Patrick Mahomes — Anytime touchdown: Yes+320DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 7:06 PM EDT · result loss
De'Von Achane over 60.5 rushing yards-109DraftKings line 60.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 5:18 PM EDT · result loss
Rashee Rice — Anytime touchdown: Yes+160DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 7:06 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Kenneth Walker III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
KC · RB
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -205
Kenneth Walker III scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 67% in the DraftKings price (-205), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Kenneth Walker III scored 2 touchdowns
Malik Willis — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIA · QB
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +310
Malik Willis scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+310), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Malik Willis did not score a touchdown
De'Von Achane over 3.5 receptions
MIA · RB
We project 3.7Recent average 3.7 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -124
De'Von Achane has averaged 3.5 receptions over 2 games this season and 3.9 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-124), and our model projects 3.7 — 0.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: De'Von Achane 0 receptions
Patrick Mahomes — Anytime touchdown: Yes
KC · QB
We project 0.55Recent average 0.55 over 12 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +320
Patrick Mahomes scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 4 of 11 games last season (0.55 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 55% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Patrick Mahomes did not score a touchdown
De'Von Achane over 60.5 rushing yards
MIA · RB
We project 73Recent average 73 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109
De'Von Achane has averaged 57 rushing yards over 2 games this season and 89 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 60.5 (-109), and our model projects 73 — 12 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: De'Von Achane 17 rushing yards
Rashee Rice — Anytime touchdown: Yes
KC · WR
We project 0.83Recent average 0.65 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +160
Rashee Rice scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 4 of 8 games last season (0.83 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 65% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Rashee Rice did not score a touchdown