Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Game preview · Sunday, September 27, 2026
The pick
Take Miami Dolphins +8.5
Miami Dolphins is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 8.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
Current market
Current market check pending
The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. A fresh read has not been computed yet.
- Official pick
- +8.5 · locked Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT
- Latest DraftKings
- +10.5 · Sep 21, 2026 · 4:07 AM EDT
Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line, price and side exactly as they were locked.
The betting line
KC -10.5
Sportsbooks make Kansas City Chiefs the favorite by 10.5. Expected combined score: 45.5
DraftKings · updated Mon, 4:07 AM EDT
Our projected score
Kansas City Chiefs26
Miami Dolphins18
Kickoff
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT
CBS — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026
Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins projection
Kansas City Chiefs visit Miami Dolphins in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads KC 26 – MIA 18, a 8-point edge to Kansas City Chiefs. DraftKings has MIA +8.5 with a total of 44.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Miami Dolphins +8.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
Get an updated prediction
Live analysis — not an official tracked pick.
Our official recommendation above is locked to the line and price we published. If you see a different number at your sportsbook, enter that user-entered changed line here to see how our stored projection leans against it. Nothing you type is saved, sent, or added to our record.
Side
For example -3.5 or +6. Enter 0 for a pick’em. Range -100 to +100.
Whole number, -110 or +145 style. Price context only.
How the model got here
Projected 26–18 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Full-game total
DraftKings is quoting 45.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.
Our projected combined score is 44 · Under win probability 51.3%.
This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.
No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the total is 183 minutes old, past the staleness limit.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
No player prop angles for this matchup yet. Our stat lines need a few completed games of form for each player before we publish a number, so early-season NFL games fill in as the season goes on. Check back closer to kickoff.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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