Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 20, 2026Final

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 2.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

DEN -2.5

Sportsbooks make Denver Broncos the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 45.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 3:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Jacksonville Jaguars logo Jacksonville Jaguars23

Denver Broncos logo Denver Broncos22

Final score

Jacksonville Jaguars logo Jacksonville Jaguars13

Denver Broncos logo Denver Broncos20

Pick missed

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026

Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos projection

Jacksonville Jaguars visit Denver Broncos in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads JAX 23 – DEN 22, a 1-point edge to Jacksonville Jaguars. DraftKings has DEN -2.5 with a total of 44.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T20:06:45+00:00, rated high by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 23–22 away–home (week 2), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: high. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 45.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.

Low

Our projected combined score is 45 · Under win probability 51.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the projection was not made by the league's active public version.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

DraftKings +2.5 · tracked Tue, 4:06 PM EDT
Locked price -105
Rating high
Locked Sep 15, 8:59 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result loss

Players

Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns+114DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
Parker Washington over 56.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 56.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:18 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Bo Nix under 1.5 passing touchdowns
DEN · QB
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -125
Bo Nix has averaged 1 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 1.4 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-125), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.2 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Bo Nix 1 passing touchdowns
Trevor Lawrence over 222.5 passing yards
JAX · QB
We project 241Recent average 241 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -113
Trevor Lawrence has averaged 245 passing yards over 1 game this season and 239 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 222.5 (-113), and our model projects 241 — 18 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Trevor Lawrence 189 passing yards
Bo Nix under 222.5 passing yards
DEN · QB
We project 201Recent average 201 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -112
Bo Nix has averaged 131 passing yards over 1 game this season and 231 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 222.5 (-112), and our model projects 201 — 21 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Bo Nix 288 passing yards
Courtland Sutton under 43.5 receiving yards
DEN · WR
We project 42Recent average 42 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -111
Courtland Sutton has averaged 11 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 55 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 43.5 (-111), and our model projects 42 — 2 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Courtland Sutton 25 receiving yards
Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns
JAX · QB
We project 2.5Recent average 2.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +114
Trevor Lawrence has averaged 4 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 1.8 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (+114), and our model projects 2.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Trevor Lawrence 0 passing touchdowns
Parker Washington over 56.5 receiving yards
JAX · WR
We project 71Recent average 71 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Parker Washington has averaged 83 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 66 across 11 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 56.5 (-114), and our model projects 71 — 14 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Parker Washington 98 receiving yards