Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 20, 2026Final

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take Kansas City Chiefs -6.5

Kansas City Chiefs is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 6.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

KC -6

Sportsbooks make Kansas City Chiefs the favorite by 6. Expected combined score: 46.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Indianapolis Colts logo Indianapolis Colts20

Kansas City Chiefs logo Kansas City Chiefs27

Final score

Indianapolis Colts logo Indianapolis Colts30

Kansas City Chiefs logo Kansas City Chiefs33

Pick missed

NBC — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026

Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs projection

Indianapolis Colts visit Kansas City Chiefs in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads IND 20 – KC 27, a 7-point edge to Kansas City Chiefs. DraftKings has KC -6.5 with a total of 47.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T20:06:45+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 20–27 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 46.5 — Over -102 / Under -118.

Low

Our projected combined score is 47 · Over win probability 51.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the projection was not made by the league's active public version.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Alec Pierce over 2.5 receptions-170DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss
Tyler Warren under 46.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 46.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result win
Alec Pierce over 44.5 receiving yards-109DraftKings line 44.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss
Travis Kelce over 42.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 42.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns
KC · QB
We project 1.8Recent average 1.8 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -106
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 2 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 1.7 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-106), and our model projects 1.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Patrick Mahomes 3 passing touchdowns
Rashee Rice over 4.5 receptions
KC · WR
We project 5.2Recent average 5.2 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -155
Rashee Rice has averaged 2 receptions over 1 game this season and 6.6 across 8 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-155), and our model projects 5.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Rashee Rice 4 receptions
Alec Pierce over 2.5 receptions
IND · WR
We project 3.3Recent average 3.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -170
Alec Pierce has averaged 4 receptions over 1 game this season and 3 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-170), and our model projects 3.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Alec Pierce 1 receptions
Tyler Warren under 46.5 receiving yards
IND · TE
We project 37Recent average 37 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Tyler Warren has averaged 13 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 47 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 46.5 (-114), and our model projects 37 — 10 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Tyler Warren 21 receiving yards
Alec Pierce over 44.5 receiving yards
IND · WR
We project 65Recent average 65 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109
Alec Pierce has averaged 61 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 67 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 44.5 (-109), and our model projects 65 — 21 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Alec Pierce 11 receiving yards
Travis Kelce over 42.5 receiving yards
KC · TE
We project 57Recent average 57 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Travis Kelce has averaged 71 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 51 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 42.5 (-114), and our model projects 57 — 15 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Travis Kelce 101 receiving yards