Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026
The pick
Take Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 6.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
KC -6
Sportsbooks make Kansas City Chiefs the favorite by 6. Expected combined score: 46.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Indianapolis Colts20
Kansas City Chiefs27
Final score
Indianapolis Colts30
Kansas City Chiefs33
Pick missed
NBC — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 20, 2026
Post-game: Colts at Chiefs Leaves Kansas City Short of Cover
On Sunday, September 20, 2026, the Kansas City Chiefs held off the Indianapolis Colts for a 33–30 victory, but failed to cover the tracked DraftKings spread of -6.5. With the three-point margin falling short of the number, the pick goes down as a loss for our model, which backed Kansas City on a low-confidence rating.
The model correctly identified Kansas City as the outright winner and anticipated a competitive matchup rather than a runaway rout. Its projected 27–20 final accurately leaned toward the home side controlling the scoreboard while keeping the margin within single digits.
However, the projection missed how effective both offenses would be. Indianapolis comfortably exceeded its 20-point projection, consistently answering Kansas City's scoring drives and keeping the game within a single possession throughout the fourth quarter. Backing a favorite to cover nearly a touchdown on a slim model edge left no room for error against an offense that outperformed expectations.
Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026
Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs projection
Indianapolis Colts visit Kansas City Chiefs in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads IND 20 – KC 27, a 7-point edge to Kansas City Chiefs. DraftKings has KC -6.5 with a total of 47.5.
This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T20:06:45+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 20–27 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Alec Pierce over 2.5 receptions-170DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss
- Tyler Warren under 46.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 46.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result win
- Alec Pierce over 44.5 receiving yards-109DraftKings line 44.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result loss
- Travis Kelce over 42.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 42.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 8:07 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- KC · QB
Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 1.8Recent average 1.8 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -106Patrick Mahomes has averaged 2 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 1.7 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-106), and our model projects 1.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Patrick Mahomes 3 passing touchdowns
- KC · WR
Rashee Rice over 4.5 receptions
We project 5.2Recent average 5.2 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -155Rashee Rice has averaged 2 receptions over 1 game this season and 6.6 across 8 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-155), and our model projects 5.2 — 0.7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Rashee Rice 4 receptions
- IND · WR
Alec Pierce over 2.5 receptions
We project 3.3Recent average 3.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -170Alec Pierce has averaged 4 receptions over 1 game this season and 3 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-170), and our model projects 3.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Alec Pierce 1 receptions
- IND · TE
Tyler Warren under 46.5 receiving yards
We project 37Recent average 37 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114Tyler Warren has averaged 13 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 47 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 46.5 (-114), and our model projects 37 — 10 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Tyler Warren 21 receiving yards
- IND · WR
Alec Pierce over 44.5 receiving yards
We project 65Recent average 65 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109Alec Pierce has averaged 61 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 67 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 44.5 (-109), and our model projects 65 — 21 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Alec Pierce 11 receiving yards
- KC · TE
Travis Kelce over 42.5 receiving yards
We project 57Recent average 57 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114Travis Kelce has averaged 71 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 51 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 42.5 (-114), and our model projects 57 — 15 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Travis Kelce 101 receiving yards
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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