Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 20, 2026Final

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take New York Jets +4.5

New York Jets is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 4.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

GB -3.5

Sportsbooks make Green Bay Packers the favorite by 3.5. Expected combined score: 44.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Green Bay Packers logo Green Bay Packers24

New York Jets logo New York Jets20

Final score

Green Bay Packers logo Green Bay Packers20

New York Jets logo New York Jets17

Pick covered

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026

Preview: Green Bay Packers at New York Jets projection

Green Bay Packers visit New York Jets in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads GB 24 – NYJ 20, a 4-point edge to Green Bay Packers. DraftKings has NYJ +4.5 with a total of 44.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is New York Jets +4.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T17:07:55+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 24–20 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 44.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.

Low

Our projected combined score is 44 · Under win probability 51.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the projection was not made by the league's active public version.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Breece Hall over 69.5 rushing yards-111DraftKings line 69.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
Tucker Kraft over 46.5 receiving yards-109DraftKings line 46.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
Christian Watson over 59.5 receiving yards-110DraftKings line 59.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:18 PM EDT · result loss
Christian Watson over 3.5 receptions-159DraftKings line 3.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 16, 7:18 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Garrett Wilson under 62.5 receiving yards
NYJ · WR
We project 53Recent average 57 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -111
Garrett Wilson has averaged 79 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 48 across 2 games last season, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 7% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 62.5 (-111), and our model projects 53 — 10 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Garrett Wilson 57 receiving yards
Garrett Wilson under 5.5 receptions
NYJ · WR
We project 5Recent average 4.3 over 3 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +109
Garrett Wilson has averaged 6 receptions over 1 game this season and 3.5 across 2 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 5.5 (+109), and our model projects 5 — 0.5 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Garrett Wilson 5 receptions
Breece Hall over 69.5 rushing yards
NYJ · RB
We project 93Recent average 79 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111
Breece Hall has averaged 102 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 69 across 11 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 69.5 (-111), and our model projects 93 — 24 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Breece Hall 29 rushing yards
Tucker Kraft over 46.5 receiving yards
GB · TE
We project 70Recent average 70 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109
Tucker Kraft has averaged 65 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 72 across 5 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 46.5 (-109), and our model projects 70 — 24 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Tucker Kraft 15 receiving yards
Christian Watson over 59.5 receiving yards
GB · WR
We project 87Recent average 87 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Christian Watson has averaged 147 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 61 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 59.5 (-110), and our model projects 87 — 27 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Christian Watson 41 receiving yards
Christian Watson over 3.5 receptions
GB · WR
We project 4.3Recent average 4.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -159
Christian Watson has averaged 6 receptions over 1 game this season and 3.5 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-159), and our model projects 4.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Christian Watson 4 receptions