Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Game preview · Sunday, November 8, 2026
The pick
Take New England Patriots -3
New England Patriots is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 3 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: medium
Current market
Current market check pending
The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. A fresh read has not been computed yet.
- Official pick
- -3 · locked Oct 28, 2026 · 11:24 PM EDT
- Latest DraftKings
- -3.5 · Nov 7, 2026 · 11:08 PM EST
Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line, price and side exactly as they were locked.
The betting line
NE -3.5
Sportsbooks make New England Patriots the favorite by 3.5. Expected combined score: 44.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:08 PM EST
Our projected score
Green Bay Packers22
New England Patriots26
Kickoff
Sun, 4:25 PM EST
Fox — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Nov 8, 2026
Preview: Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
The Green Bay Packers travel to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots in Week 9 action this Sunday. Looking at the baseline numbers, the CoveredSports statistical model projects a 26–22 victory for New England, setting up a competitive matchup that sits just below the posted 47.5 game total.
When our tracking opened, DraftKings listed New England as a 3-point home favorite (-3), a line that remains steady. Because our projection calculates a four-point win for the Patriots, it nudges them just across the key threshold. As a result, our model takes New England -3 to cover the tracked spread.
The model assigns a medium confidence rating to this position. Built purely on regular-season data and balanced with a 50% weighting against the broader market consensus, the framework isolates small pricing edges rather than guaranteeing outcomes. In this spot, the projection leans slightly toward the home team doing enough to clear the field-goal barrier.
Get an updated prediction
Live analysis — not an official tracked pick.
Our official recommendation above is locked to the line and price we published. If you see a different number at your sportsbook, enter that user-entered changed line here to see how our stored projection leans against it. Nothing you type is saved, sent, or added to our record.
Side
For example -3.5 or +6. Enter 0 for a pick’em. Range -100 to +100.
Whole number, -110 or +145 style. Price context only.
How the model got here
Projected 22–26 away–home (week 9), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 50% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Christian Watson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+125DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 2, 10:17 AM EST · result pending
- Josh Jacobs over 43.5 rushing yards-110DraftKings line 43.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 4:18 AM EST · result pending
- Rhamondre Stevenson under 53.5 rushing yards-114DraftKings line 53.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 4:18 AM EST · result pending
- Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns-119DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 4:18 AM EST · result pending
Each number and price is the DraftKings figure recorded before kickoff and never changed afterwards. Times are Eastern.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- GB · RB
Josh Jacobs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.8Recent average 0.6 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -120Josh Jacobs scored in 6 of 10 games last season (0.8 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 60% chance to score, against 55% in the DraftKings price (-120), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- NE · QB
Drake Maye over 230.5 passing yards
We project 253Recent average 253 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -113Drake Maye has averaged 251 passing yards over 4 games this season and 262 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 230.5 (-113), and our model projects 253 — 23 above the number, so the play is the over.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- GB · WR
Christian Watson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.08Recent average 0.79 over 13 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +125Christian Watson scored in 3 of 3 games this season and in 4 of 10 games last season (1.08 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 79% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- GB · RB
Josh Jacobs over 43.5 rushing yards
We project 57Recent average 57 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110Josh Jacobs has averaged 57 rushing yards across 10 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 43.5 (-110), and our model projects 57 — 14 above the number, so the play is the over.
- NE · RB
Rhamondre Stevenson under 53.5 rushing yards
We project 40Recent average 40 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 37 rushing yards over 4 games this season and 51 across 7 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 53.5 (-114), and our model projects 40 — 13 below the number, so the play is the under.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- NE · QB
Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 1.8Recent average 1.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -119Drake Maye has averaged 1.8 passing touchdowns over 5 games this season and 1.8 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-119), and our model projects 1.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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