Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

GB 24 – MIN 23

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: medium

The betting line

MIN -1.5

Sportsbooks make Minnesota Vikings the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 46.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 3:48 PM EDT

Our projected score

Green Bay Packers logo Green Bay Packers24

Minnesota Vikings logo Minnesota Vikings23

Final score

Green Bay Packers logo Green Bay Packers22

Minnesota Vikings logo Minnesota Vikings39

Pick missed

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings projection

Green Bay Packers visit Minnesota Vikings in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads GB 23 – MIN 24, a 1-point edge to Minnesota Vikings. DraftKings has MIN -2.5 with a total of 46.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 274 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 24–23 away–home (week 1), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Justin Jefferson under 5.5 receptions
MIN · WR
We project 4.4Recent average 4.4 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +119
Justin Jefferson has averaged 4.4 receptions over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 5.5 at DraftKings (+119), and our model projects 4.4 — 1.1 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Justin Jefferson 8 receptions
Jordan Love over 1.5 passing touchdowns
GB · QB
We project 1.7Recent average 1.7 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -104
Jordan Love has averaged 1.7 passing touchdowns over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 1.5 at DraftKings (-104), and our model projects 1.7 — 0.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jordan Love 2 passing touchdowns
Jayden Reed over 3.5 receptions
GB · WR
We project 4Recent average 4 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -106
Jayden Reed has averaged 4 receptions over 5 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 3.5 at DraftKings (-106), and our model projects 4 — 0.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jayden Reed 3 receptions
Aaron Jones Sr. over 29.5 rushing yards
MIN · RB
We project 53Recent average 53 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115
Aaron Jones Sr. has averaged 53 rushing yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 29.5 at DraftKings (-115), and our model projects 53 — 23 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Aaron Jones Sr. 40 rushing yards
Justin Jefferson under 73.5 receiving yards
MIN · WR
We project 49Recent average 49 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112
Justin Jefferson has averaged 49 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 73.5 at DraftKings (-112), and our model projects 49 — 25 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Justin Jefferson 92 receiving yards
Jordan Love under 239.5 passing yards
GB · QB
We project 183Recent average 183 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
Jordan Love has averaged 183 passing yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 239.5 at DraftKings (-113), and our model projects 183 — 56 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Jordan Love 387 passing yards