Post-game analysisNFLThursday, September 17, 2026Final

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Post-game analysis · Thursday, September 17, 2026

The pick

Take Buffalo Bills -4.5

Buffalo Bills is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 4.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

BUF -5.5

Sportsbooks make Buffalo Bills the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 54.5

DraftKings · updated Thu, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Detroit Lions logo Detroit Lions24

Buffalo Bills logo Buffalo Bills29

Final score

Detroit Lions logo Detroit Lions31

Buffalo Bills logo Buffalo Bills41

Pick covered

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Matchup preview · Sep 17, 2026

Preview: Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills projection

Detroit Lions visit Buffalo Bills in NFL on Thursday, September 17, 2026. Our projection reads DET 24 – BUF 29, a 5-point edge to Buffalo Bills. DraftKings has BUF -4.5 with a total of 53.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Buffalo Bills -4.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T23:07:34+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 24–29 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 54.5 — Over -118 / Under -102.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 53 · Under win probability 53.9%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. not high enough: edge 0.056117, probability 0.538753, expected value 0.066942.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Ty Johnson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+400DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result pending
Dawson Knox over 1.5 receptions+122DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result win
Jahmyr Gibbs over 29.5 receiving yards-115DraftKings line 29.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result win
Jameson Williams over 58.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 58.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result loss
Sam LaPorta over 45.5 receiving yards-110DraftKings line 45.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 7:16 AM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

DJ Moore — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BUF · WR
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +150
DJ Moore has scored in 1 of his last 1 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: DJ Moore did not score a touchdown
Ty Johnson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BUF · RB
We project 0.59Recent average 0.59 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +400
Ty Johnson has scored in 4 of his last 10 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 44% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Dawson Knox over 1.5 receptions
BUF · TE
We project 2.7Recent average 2.7 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +122
Dawson Knox has averaged 2.7 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (+122), and our model projects 2.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Dawson Knox 2 receptions
Jahmyr Gibbs over 29.5 receiving yards
DET · RB
We project 42Recent average 42 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115
Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 42 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 29.5 (-115), and our model projects 42 — 12 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jahmyr Gibbs 61 receiving yards
Jameson Williams over 58.5 receiving yards
DET · WR
We project 76Recent average 76 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Jameson Williams has averaged 76 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 58.5 (-114), and our model projects 76 — 17 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jameson Williams 33 receiving yards
Sam LaPorta over 45.5 receiving yards
DET · TE
We project 59Recent average 59 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Sam LaPorta has averaged 59 receiving yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 45.5 (-110), and our model projects 59 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Sam LaPorta 52 receiving yards