Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
Post-game analysis · Sunday, October 4, 2026
The pick
Take San Francisco 49ers -3
San Francisco 49ers is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 3 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 4, 2026 · 6:25 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
SF -3
Sportsbooks make San Francisco 49ers the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 48.5
DraftKings · updated Sun, 4:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Denver Broncos20
San Francisco 49ers28
Final score
Denver Broncos14
San Francisco 49ers24
Pick covered
CBS — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Oct 4, 2026
Post-game: 49ers Cover Against Broncos in 24-14 Win
On Sunday, October 4, 2026, the San Francisco 49ers secured a 24-14 victory over the Denver Broncos, comfortably covering the tracked 3-point DraftKings spread. Our statistical model held a high-confidence rating on San Francisco, and the 10-point home win produced a clean result against the market number.
The model correctly anticipated San Francisco's operational advantage, projecting an eight-point margin (28-20) that aligned closely with the actual 10-point margin of victory. San Francisco dictated the tempo from the outset, validating the model's regular-season baseline weighting that showed value on the 49ers laying a field goal.
Where the projection proved less accurate was the total output. Both teams combined for just 38 points, falling short of our 48-point estimate and the 48.5 pre-game market total. Denver struggled to sustain drives more than anticipated, but the defensive standoff worked in favor of the side pick.
Matchup preview · Oct 4, 2026
Preview: Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers host the Denver Broncos this Sunday, October 4, in a Week 4 matchup. When lines were recorded, the tracked spread sat at -3 in favor of San Francisco with a total of 48.5. That is the number we took, backing the 49ers to cover the field goal margin at home.
Our statistical model forecasts a 28–20 victory for San Francisco. That eight-point projected margin gives the 49ers enough breathing room to clear the -3 spread we took, identifying meaningful separation between our baseline expectation and the market line while projecting close to the posted 48.5-point total.
With a modeled edge of more than four points, the system assigns this pick a high rating. The model isolates regular-season performance data and blends it with a 65 percent market anchor to generate its outlook. While projections reflect statistical probabilities rather than certainties, the numbers point toward San Francisco covering the tracked spread at Levi's Stadium.
How the model got here
Projected 20–28 away–home (week 4), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: high. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take San Francisco 49ers -3
- DraftKings -3 · tracked Sun, 5:07 AM EDT
- Locked price +100
- Rating high
- Locked Oct 4, 6:25 AM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing touchdowns-115DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result win
- George Kittle under 63.5 receiving yards-113DraftKings line 63.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
- Kyle Juszczyk — Anytime touchdown: Yes+650DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
- RJ Harvey — Anytime touchdown: Yes+215DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- DEN · TE
Nate Adkins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.48Recent average 0.48 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1200Nate Adkins scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.48 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 48% chance to score, against 8% in the DraftKings price (+1200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- DEN · WR
Jaylen Waddle over 57.5 receiving yards
We project 76Recent average 76 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -110Jaylen Waddle has averaged 76 receiving yards over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 57.5 (-110), and our model projects 76 — 18 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jaylen Waddle 35 receiving yards
- SF · QB
Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 2.5Recent average 2.5 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115Brock Purdy has averaged 3 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 2.3 across 8 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-115), and our model projects 2.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Brock Purdy 2 passing touchdowns
- SF · TE
George Kittle under 63.5 receiving yards
We project 44Recent average 44 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113George Kittle has averaged 12 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 57 across 11 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 63.5 (-113), and our model projects 44 — 20 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: George Kittle 70 receiving yards
- SF
Kyle Juszczyk — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.36Recent average 0.36 over 12 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +650Kyle Juszczyk scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 11 games last season (0.36 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 36% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Kyle Juszczyk did not score a touchdown
- DEN · RB
RJ Harvey — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.59Recent average 0.43 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +215RJ Harvey scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 8 of 13 games last season (0.59 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 43% chance to score, against 32% in the DraftKings price (+215), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: RJ Harvey did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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