Post-game analysisNFLMonday, September 14, 2026Final

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Post-game analysis · Monday, September 14, 2026

The pick

Take Denver Broncos +3

Denver Broncos is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 7, 2026 · 9:07 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

KC -2.5

Sportsbooks make Kansas City Chiefs the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 42.5

DraftKings · updated Mon, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Denver Broncos logo Denver Broncos18

Kansas City Chiefs logo Kansas City Chiefs19

Final score

Denver Broncos logo Denver Broncos10

Kansas City Chiefs logo Kansas City Chiefs31

Pick missed

ESPN, ABC — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 14, 2026

Preview: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

The Denver Broncos head on the road Monday night to face the Kansas City Chiefs in an early-season AFC West test. When lines were recorded, we tracked Denver as a 3-point underdog (+3) on DraftKings, against a full-game total set at 43.5.

Our statistical model projects a gritty, defensive duel, forecasting a narrow 19–18 victory for Kansas City. That tight one-point margin translates to a 2.47-point edge toward the road underdog relative to the +3 spread we took. The model's projected 37 combined points also points toward a tighter, lower-scoring contest than the market total suggests.

Based on two games of scoring form, the model assigns a medium rating to Denver +3. While early-season data carries inherent variance and projections are never a certainty, the baseline simulation indicates Denver has enough defensive stability to keep this divisional matchup within the three-point cushion.

How the model got here

Model projects 18–19, a 0.5 margin against a market number of 3 — a 2.47-point edge toward the road side. Based on 2 and 2 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

RJ Harvey over 2.5 receptions-113DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 7, 9:06 PM EDT · result win
Courtland Sutton under 4.5 receptions-166DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 7, 9:06 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

J.K. Dobbins over 50.5 rushing yards
DEN · RB
We project 81Recent average 81 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -114
J.K. Dobbins has averaged 81 rushing yards over 3 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 50.5 (-114), and our model projects 81 — 31 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: J.K. Dobbins 36 rushing yards
Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions
KC · WR
We project 6.5Recent average 6.5 over 7 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -130
Rashee Rice has averaged 6.5 receptions over 7 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 5.5 (-130), and our model projects 6.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Rashee Rice 2 receptions
Rashee Rice over 62.5 receiving yards
KC · WR
We project 72Recent average 72 over 7 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -114
Rashee Rice has averaged 72 receiving yards over 7 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 62.5 (-114), and our model projects 72 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Rashee Rice 19 receiving yards
Patrick Mahomes over 232.5 passing yards
KC · QB
We project 245Recent average 245 over 7 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -113
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 245 passing yards over 7 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 232.5 (-113), and our model projects 245 — 12 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Patrick Mahomes 184 passing yards
RJ Harvey over 2.5 receptions
DEN · RB
We project 3.3Recent average 3.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
RJ Harvey has averaged 3.3 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-113), and our model projects 3.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: RJ Harvey 4 receptions
Courtland Sutton under 4.5 receptions
DEN · WR
We project 3.5Recent average 3.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -166
Courtland Sutton has averaged 3.5 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-166), and our model projects 3.5 — 1 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Courtland Sutton 2 receptions