Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

DAL 25 – NYG 23

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: low

The betting line

DAL -3

Sportsbooks make Dallas Cowboys the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 47.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 8:05 PM EDT

Our projected score

Dallas Cowboys logo Dallas Cowboys25

New York Giants logo New York Giants23

Final score

Dallas Cowboys logo Dallas Cowboys20

New York Giants logo New York Giants28

Pick covered

NBC — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants projection

Dallas Cowboys visit New York Giants in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads DAL 25 – NYG 23, a 2-point edge to Dallas Cowboys. DraftKings has NYG +3 with a total of 48.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. No regular-season games have been completed yet this year, so last season's regular-season results carry the team ratings, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 272 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 25–23 away–home (week 1), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

CeeDee Lamb under 6.5 receptions-129DraftKings line 6.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 7, 7:56 AM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jaxson Dart under 214.5 passing yards
NYG · QB
We project 185Recent average 185 over 8 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -113
Jaxson Dart has averaged 185 passing yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 214.5 (-113), and our model projects 185 — 29 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Jaxson Dart 230 passing yards
Jake Ferguson under 3.5 receptions
DAL · TE
We project 2.8Recent average 2.8 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -119
Jake Ferguson has averaged 2.8 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-119), and our model projects 2.8 — 0.7 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Jake Ferguson 2 receptions
Odell Beckham Jr. over 7.5 receiving yards
NYG · WR
We project 36Recent average 36 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -116
Odell Beckham Jr. has averaged 36 receiving yards over 2 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 7.5 (-116), and our model projects 36 — 29 above the number, so the play is the over.
George Pickens over 4.5 receptions
DAL · WR
We project 5.1Recent average 5.1 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -153
George Pickens has averaged 5.1 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-153), and our model projects 5.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: George Pickens 3 receptions
CeeDee Lamb under 6.5 receptions
DAL · WR
We project 5Recent average 5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -129
CeeDee Lamb has averaged 5 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 6.5 (-129), and our model projects 5 — 1.5 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: CeeDee Lamb 5 receptions