Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 20, 2026Final

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 20, 2026

The pick

Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 8.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 8:59 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

TB -8.5

Sportsbooks make Tampa Bay Buccaneers the favorite by 8.5. Expected combined score: 41.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Cleveland Browns logo Cleveland Browns15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo Tampa Bay Buccaneers25

Final score

Cleveland Browns logo Cleveland Browns23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers logo Tampa Bay Buccaneers19

Pick missed

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 20, 2026

Preview: Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers projection

Cleveland Browns visit Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Our projection reads CLE 15 – TB 25, a 10-point edge to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. DraftKings has TB -8.5 with a total of 40.5.

This is week 2 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T17:07:55+00:00, rated medium by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

How the model got here

Projected 15–25 away–home (week 2), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 41.5 — Over -108 / Under -112.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 40 · Under win probability 53.9%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the projection was not made by the league's active public version.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Cade Otton over 2.5 receptions-152DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 6:18 AM EDT · result win
Cade Otton over 26.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 26.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 17, 6:18 AM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Harold Fannin Jr. over 35.5 receiving yards
CLE · TE
We project 40Recent average 40 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -109
Harold Fannin Jr. has averaged 21 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 49 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 35.5 (-109), and our model projects 40 — 5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Harold Fannin Jr. 54 receiving yards
Chris Godwin Jr. under 47.5 receiving yards
TB · WR
We project 41Recent average 41 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -111
Chris Godwin Jr. has averaged 40 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 42 across 8 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 47.5 (-111), and our model projects 41 — 6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Chris Godwin Jr. 46 receiving yards
Harold Fannin Jr. under 4.5 receptions
CLE · TE
We project 3.9Recent average 3.9 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -165
Harold Fannin Jr. has averaged 2 receptions over 1 game this season and 4.8 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-165), and our model projects 3.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Harold Fannin Jr. 5 receptions
Jerry Jeudy over 2.5 receptions
CLE · WR
We project 2.7Recent average 2.7 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -107
Jerry Jeudy has averaged 2 receptions over 1 game this season and 3 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-107), and our model projects 2.7 — 0.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jerry Jeudy 0 receptions
Cade Otton over 2.5 receptions
TB · TE
We project 3.8Recent average 3.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -152
Cade Otton has averaged 3 receptions over 1 game this season and 4.1 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-152), and our model projects 3.8 — 1.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cade Otton 5 receptions
Cade Otton over 26.5 receiving yards
TB · TE
We project 37Recent average 37 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Cade Otton has averaged 26 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 41 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 26.5 (-114), and our model projects 37 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cade Otton 38 receiving yards