Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

CLE 14 – JAX 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: medium

The betting line

JAX -9.5

Sportsbooks make Jacksonville Jaguars the favorite by 9.5. Expected combined score: 40.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Cleveland Browns logo Cleveland Browns14

Jacksonville Jaguars logo Jacksonville Jaguars26

Final score

Cleveland Browns logo Cleveland Browns10

Jacksonville Jaguars logo Jacksonville Jaguars34

Pick covered

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars projection

Cleveland Browns visit Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads CLE 13 – JAX 26, a 13-point edge to Jacksonville Jaguars. DraftKings has JAX -8.5 with a total of 39.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 274 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 14–26 away–home (week 1), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Quinshon Judkins over 1.5 receptions
CLE · RB
We project 2.6Recent average 2.6 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -127
Quinshon Judkins has averaged 2.6 receptions over 6 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 1.5 at DraftKings (-127), and our model projects 2.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Quinshon Judkins 2 receptions
Quinshon Judkins under 60 rushing yards
CLE · RB
We project 44Recent average 44 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115
Quinshon Judkins has averaged 44 rushing yards over 7 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 60 at DraftKings (-115), and our model projects 44 — 16 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Quinshon Judkins 33 rushing yards
Jakobi Meyers over 36.5 receiving yards
JAX · WR
We project 46Recent average 46 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -115
Jakobi Meyers has averaged 46 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 36.5 at DraftKings (-115), and our model projects 46 — 9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jakobi Meyers 40 receiving yards
Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns
JAX · QB
We project 2.4Recent average 2.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -107
Trevor Lawrence has averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 1.5 at DraftKings (-107), and our model projects 2.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Trevor Lawrence 4 passing touchdowns
Parker Washington over 52.5 receiving yards
JAX · WR
We project 81Recent average 81 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111
Parker Washington has averaged 81 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 52.5 at DraftKings (-111), and our model projects 81 — 29 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Parker Washington 83 receiving yards
Harold Fannin Jr. over 35.5 receiving yards
CLE · TE
We project 47Recent average 47 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109
Harold Fannin Jr. has averaged 47 receiving yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 35.5 at DraftKings (-109), and our model projects 47 — 11 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Harold Fannin Jr. 21 receiving yards