PreviewNFLMonday, November 9, 2026Mon, 8:15 PM EST

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Game preview · Monday, November 9, 2026

The pick

Take Minnesota Vikings +2.5

Minnesota Vikings is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 2.5 points.

Pick locked in: Oct 31, 2026 · 12:57 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

Current market

Current market check pending

The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. A fresh read has not been computed yet.

Official pick: +2.5 · locked Oct 31, 2026 · 12:57 PM EDT
Latest DraftKings: +3 · Nov 7, 2026 · 9:09 PM EST

Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line, price and side exactly as they were locked.

The betting line

BUF -3

Sportsbooks make Buffalo Bills the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 43.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 9:09 PM EST

Our projected score

Buffalo Bills logo Buffalo Bills23

Minnesota Vikings logo Minnesota Vikings24

Kickoff

Mon, 8:15 PM EST

ESPN, ABC — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Nov 9, 2026

Preview: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

The Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night in a matchup between two balanced rosters. Our statistical model evaluates regular-season data and projects a tightly contested game, forecasting a 24–23 victory for Minnesota.

When we published, the tracked line sat at Minnesota +2.5 on DraftKings, which is the number we took. Because our framework projects the Vikings to win outright by a single point, taking +2.5 points creates a clear mathematical advantage and earns a high rating from the model. The projected combined score of 47 points also aligns closely with the market total of 47.5.

Our model relies strictly on regular-season performance metrics and blends team priors with a 50 percent market weight, filtering out preseason noise. While the projection identifies value on Minnesota covering the tracked spread at home, single-possession games always carry variance, and our outputs reflect probabilistic edges rather than certain outcomes.

Get an updated prediction

Live analysis — not an official tracked pick.

Our official recommendation above is locked to the line and price we published. If you see a different number at your sportsbook, enter that user-entered changed line here to see how our stored projection leans against it. Nothing you type is saved, sent, or added to our record.

Side

Spread for MIN

For example -3.5 or +6. Enter 0 for a pick’em. Range -100 to +100.

American odds

Whole number, -110 or +145 style. Price context only.

How the model got here

Projected 23–24 away–home (week 9), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 50% weight on the market. Rating: high. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Minnesota Vikings +2.5

DraftKings +2.5 · tracked Sat, 5:08 AM EDT
Locked price -110
Rating high
Locked Oct 31, 12:57 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result pending

Players

Josh Allen — Anytime touchdown: Yes-160DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 2, 8:18 PM EST · result pending
James Cook III — Anytime touchdown: Yes-130DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 2, 8:18 PM EST · result pending
Aaron Jones Sr. over 33.5 rushing yards-113DraftKings line 33.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 2:18 AM EST · result pending
Keon Coleman over 27.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 27.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 2:18 AM EST · result pending
Jordan Addison under 3.5 receptions-111DraftKings line 3.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 4, 2:18 AM EST · result pending

Each number and price is the DraftKings figure recorded before kickoff and never changed afterwards. Times are Eastern.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Justin Jefferson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIN · WR
We project 0.68Recent average 0.46 over 16 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +160
Justin Jefferson scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 13 games last season (0.68 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 46% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Josh Allen — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BUF · QB
We project 1.46Recent average 0.75 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -160
Josh Allen scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 6 of 12 games last season (1.46 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 62% in the DraftKings price (-160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
James Cook III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BUF · RB
We project 0.75Recent average 0.68 over 16 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -130
James Cook III scored in 3 of 4 games this season and in 5 of 12 games last season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 68% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Aaron Jones Sr. over 33.5 rushing yards
MIN · RB
We project 81Recent average 81 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
Aaron Jones Sr. has averaged 86 rushing yards over 5 games this season and 54 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 33.5 (-113), and our model projects 81 — 48 above the number, so the play is the over.
Keon Coleman over 27.5 receiving yards
BUF · WR
We project 55Recent average 55 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Keon Coleman has averaged 59 receiving yards over 5 games this season and 28 across 6 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 27.5 (-114), and our model projects 55 — 27 above the number, so the play is the over.
Jordan Addison under 3.5 receptions
MIN · WR
We project 2.5Recent average 2.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111
Jordan Addison has averaged 3 receptions over 4 games this season and 2.1 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 13% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-111), and our model projects 2.5 — 1 below the number, so the play is the under.