Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

BUF 23 – HOU 22

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: low

The betting line

BUF -1.5

Sportsbooks make Buffalo Bills the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 44.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Buffalo Bills logo Buffalo Bills23

Houston Texans logo Houston Texans22

Final score

Buffalo Bills logo Buffalo Bills36

Houston Texans logo Houston Texans31

Pick missed

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans projection

Buffalo Bills visit Houston Texans in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads BUF 23 – HOU 22, a 1-point edge to Buffalo Bills. DraftKings has HOU +1.5 with a total of 44.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. No regular-season games have been completed yet this year, so last season's regular-season results carry the team ratings, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 272 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 23–22 away–home (week 1), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Dalton Schultz over 33.5 receiving yards
HOU · TE
We project 40Recent average 40 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -115
Dalton Schultz has averaged 40 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 33.5 (-115), and our model projects 40 — 6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Dalton Schultz 35 receiving yards
Dawson Knox over 1.5 receptions
BUF · TE
We project 3Recent average 3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -108
Dawson Knox has averaged 3 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-108), and our model projects 3 — 1.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Dawson Knox 1 receptions
Woody Marks over 32.5 rushing yards
HOU · RB
We project 55Recent average 55 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109
Woody Marks has averaged 55 rushing yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 32.5 (-109), and our model projects 55 — 22 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Woody Marks 42 rushing yards
Khalil Shakir over 3.5 receptions
BUF · WR
We project 5.8Recent average 5.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -141
Khalil Shakir has averaged 5.8 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-141), and our model projects 5.8 — 2.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Khalil Shakir 4 receptions
Khalil Shakir over 36.5 receiving yards
BUF · WR
We project 51Recent average 51 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Khalil Shakir has averaged 51 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 36.5 (-114), and our model projects 51 — 15 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Khalil Shakir 50 receiving yards
Nico Collins under 5.5 receptions
HOU · WR
We project 4.4Recent average 4.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -130
Nico Collins has averaged 4.4 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 5.5 (-130), and our model projects 4.4 — 1.1 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Nico Collins 7 receptions