Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

BAL 25 – IND 24

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: medium

The betting line

BAL -3

Sportsbooks make Baltimore Ravens the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 48.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Baltimore Ravens logo Baltimore Ravens25

Indianapolis Colts logo Indianapolis Colts24

Final score

Baltimore Ravens logo Baltimore Ravens41

Indianapolis Colts logo Indianapolis Colts23

Pick missed

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts projection

Baltimore Ravens visit Indianapolis Colts in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads BAL 24 – IND 23, a 1-point edge to Baltimore Ravens. DraftKings has IND +3.5 with a total of 47.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. No regular-season games have been completed yet this year, so last season's regular-season results carry the team ratings, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 272 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 25–24 away–home (week 1), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Lamar Jackson under 220.5 passing yards
BAL · QB
We project 184Recent average 184 over 8 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -112
Lamar Jackson has averaged 184 passing yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 220.5 at DraftKings (-112), and our model projects 184 — 36 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Lamar Jackson 324 passing yards
Zay Flowers over 64.5 receiving yards
BAL · WR
We project 77Recent average 77 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -113
Zay Flowers has averaged 77 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 64.5 at DraftKings (-113), and our model projects 77 — 13 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Zay Flowers 150 receiving yards
Daniel Jones under 233.5 passing yards
IND · QB
We project 164Recent average 164 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -112
Daniel Jones has averaged 164 passing yards over 4 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 233.5 at DraftKings (-112), and our model projects 164 — 70 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Daniel Jones 166 passing yards
Josh Downs under 4.5 receptions
IND · WR
We project 3.1Recent average 3.1 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -152
Josh Downs has averaged 3.1 receptions over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 4.5 at DraftKings (-152), and our model projects 3.1 — 1.4 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Josh Downs 2 receptions
Derrick Henry over 78.5 rushing yards
BAL · RB
We project 117Recent average 117 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114
Derrick Henry has averaged 117 rushing yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 78.5 at DraftKings (-114), and our model projects 117 — 38 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Derrick Henry 144 rushing yards
Alec Pierce over 47.5 receiving yards
IND · WR
We project 65Recent average 65 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Alec Pierce has averaged 65 receiving yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 47.5 at DraftKings (-110), and our model projects 65 — 18 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Alec Pierce 61 receiving yards