Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026
The pick
Take Baltimore Ravens -3
Baltimore Ravens is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 3 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
BAL -3.5
Sportsbooks make Baltimore Ravens the favorite by 3.5. Expected combined score: 52.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Baltimore Ravens28
Dallas Cowboys24
Final score
Baltimore Ravens34
Dallas Cowboys31
CBS — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026
Post-game: Ravens at Cowboys Ends in a Push Against Spread
On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Baltimore Ravens secured a 34–31 road victory over the Dallas Cowboys. We backed the Ravens at -3 on the tracked DraftKings line. Because Baltimore won by exactly three points, the result landed as a push, meaning the wager is graded as a tie and does not count as a win or a loss.
Our model correctly anticipated Baltimore’s edge, projecting a 28–24 Ravens win. The low-confidence lean on the road favorite held up in terms of general game direction, as Baltimore dictated the pace for long stretches and found consistent success moving the ball against the Dallas defense.
However, the projection missed the ceiling of both offenses. We expected a 52-point total, but the teams combined for 65 points in a much more explosive contest than anticipated. That scoring surge—coupled with a fourth-quarter push by Dallas to trim the deficit—kept Baltimore from covering outright, turning a potential win into a break-even result.
Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026
Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys projection
Baltimore Ravens visit Dallas Cowboys in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads BAL 28 – DAL 24, a 4-point edge to Baltimore Ravens. DraftKings has DAL +3 with a total of 52.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Baltimore Ravens -3 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 28–24 away–home (week 3), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing touchdowns-165DraftKings line 1.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 12:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Zay Flowers over 75.5 receiving yards-111DraftKings line 75.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 12:07 AM EDT · result win
- Derrick Henry over 88.5 rushing yards-112DraftKings line 88.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 12:07 AM EDT · result win
- Zay Flowers — Anytime touchdown: Yes+120DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 12:07 AM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- DAL · WR
CeeDee Lamb under 6.5 receptions
We project 5.4Recent average 5.4 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -103CeeDee Lamb has averaged 5 receptions over 1 game this season and 5.5 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 6.5 (-103), and our model projects 5.4 — 1.2 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: CeeDee Lamb 7 receptions
- DAL · WR
CeeDee Lamb under 82.5 receiving yards
We project 69Recent average 69 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -110CeeDee Lamb has averaged 44 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 80 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 82.5 (-110), and our model projects 69 — 13 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: CeeDee Lamb 112 receiving yards
- DAL · QB
Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing touchdowns
We project 2.1Recent average 1.8 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -165Dak Prescott has averaged 2 passing touchdowns over 1 game this season and 1.7 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 1.5 (-165), and our model projects 2.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Dak Prescott 1 passing touchdowns
- BAL · WR
Zay Flowers over 75.5 receiving yards
We project 98Recent average 98 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111Zay Flowers has averaged 150 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 75 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 75.5 (-111), and our model projects 98 — 22 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Zay Flowers 84 receiving yards
- BAL · RB
Derrick Henry over 88.5 rushing yards
We project 107Recent average 107 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -112Derrick Henry has averaged 103 rushing yards over 2 games this season and 111 across 13 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 88.5 (-112), and our model projects 107 — 19 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Derrick Henry 89 rushing yards
- BAL · WR
Zay Flowers — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.62Recent average 0.57 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +120Zay Flowers scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 5 of 13 games last season (0.62 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 57% chance to score, against 45% in the DraftKings price (+120), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Zay Flowers did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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