Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

ATL 17 – PIT 23

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: low

The betting line

PIT -6.5

Sportsbooks make Pittsburgh Steelers the favorite by 6.5. Expected combined score: 40.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 12:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Atlanta Falcons logo Atlanta Falcons17

Pittsburgh Steelers logo Pittsburgh Steelers23

Final score

Atlanta Falcons logo Atlanta Falcons13

Pittsburgh Steelers logo Pittsburgh Steelers20

Pick missed

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers projection

Atlanta Falcons visit Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads ATL 17 – PIT 24, a 7-point edge to Pittsburgh Steelers. DraftKings has PIT -6 with a total of 40.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 274 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 17–23 away–home (week 1), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Drake London under 5.5 receptions
ATL · WR
We project 4Recent average 4 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -113
Drake London has averaged 4 receptions over 5 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 5.5 at DraftKings (-113), and our model projects 4 — 1.5 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Drake London 2 receptions
DK Metcalf over 46.5 receiving yards
PIT · WR
We project 54Recent average 54 over 8 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -113
DK Metcalf has averaged 54 receiving yards over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 46.5 at DraftKings (-113), and our model projects 54 — 7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: DK Metcalf 40 receiving yards
DK Metcalf over 3.5 receptions
PIT · WR
We project 3.8Recent average 3.8 over 8 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -131
DK Metcalf has averaged 3.8 receptions over 8 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 3.5 at DraftKings (-131), and our model projects 3.8 — 0.3 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: DK Metcalf 4 receptions
Kyle Pitts Sr. over 41.5 receiving yards
ATL · TE
We project 61Recent average 61 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Kyle Pitts Sr. has averaged 61 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 41.5 at DraftKings (-110), and our model projects 61 — 20 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Kyle Pitts Sr. 0 receiving yards
Jaylen Warren over 40 rushing yards
PIT · RB
We project 52Recent average 52 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Jaylen Warren has averaged 52 rushing yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 40 at DraftKings (-110), and our model projects 52 — 12 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jaylen Warren 46 rushing yards
Bijan Robinson over 75 rushing yards
ATL · RB
We project 98Recent average 98 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Bijan Robinson has averaged 98 rushing yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The posted line is 75 at DraftKings (-110), and our model projects 98 — 23 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Bijan Robinson 83 rushing yards