PreviewNFLThursday, September 24, 2026Thu, 8:15 PM EDT

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Game preview · Thursday, September 24, 2026

The pick

Take Atlanta Falcons +6.5

Atlanta Falcons is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 9:38 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

Current market

Player availability has changed

The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Availability has changed since it locked.

2 more home players are ruled out; away quarterback is now ruled out.

Official pick: +6.5 · locked Sep 15, 2026 · 9:38 PM EDT
Latest DraftKings: +7 · Sep 21, 2026 · 3:07 AM EDT

Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line, price and side exactly as they were locked.

The betting line

GB -7

Sportsbooks make Green Bay Packers the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 44.5

DraftKings · updated Mon, 3:07 AM EDT

Our projected score

Atlanta Falcons logo Atlanta Falcons20

Green Bay Packers logo Green Bay Packers26

Kickoff

Thu, 8:15 PM EDT

Prime Video — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 24, 2026

Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers projection

Atlanta Falcons visit Green Bay Packers in NFL on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Our projection reads ATL 20 – GB 26, a 6-point edge to Green Bay Packers. DraftKings has GB -6.5 with a total of 46.5.

This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Atlanta Falcons +6.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T20:06:45+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.

Get an updated prediction

Live analysis — not an official tracked pick.

Our official recommendation above is locked to the line and price we published. If you see a different number at your sportsbook, enter that user-entered changed line here to see how our stored projection leans against it. Nothing you type is saved, sent, or added to our record.

Side

Spread for ATL

For example -3.5 or +6. Enter 0 for a pick’em. Range -100 to +100.

American odds

Whole number, -110 or +145 style. Price context only.

How the model got here

Projected 20–26 away–home (week 3), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]

Full-game total

DraftKings is quoting 44.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.

Low

Our projected combined score is 46 · Under win probability 51.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the total is 244 minutes old, past the staleness limit.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Matthew Golden under 4.5 receptions-145DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result pending
Bijan Robinson over 4.5 receptions-143DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result pending
Christian Watson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+145DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result pending
Kyle Pitts Sr. over 38.5 receiving yards-111DraftKings line 38.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result pending
Bijan Robinson over 41.5 receiving yards-109DraftKings line 41.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result pending
Christian Watson under 4.5 receptions-120DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result pending

Each number and price is the DraftKings figure recorded before kickoff and never changed afterwards. Times are Eastern.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Matthew Golden under 4.5 receptions
GB · WR
We project 2.7Recent average 3.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -145
Matthew Golden has averaged 4.9 receptions over 2 games this season and 1.7 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 18% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-145), and our model projects 2.7 — 1.8 below the number, so the play is the under.
Bijan Robinson over 4.5 receptions
ATL · RB
We project 5.9Recent average 5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -143
Bijan Robinson has averaged 5.3 receptions over 2 games this season and 4.8 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-143), and our model projects 5.9 — 1.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
Christian Watson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
GB · WR
We project 1.05Recent average 0.7 over 12 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +145
Christian Watson scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 4 of 10 games last season (1.05 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 70% chance to score, against 41% in the DraftKings price (+145), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Kyle Pitts Sr. over 38.5 receiving yards
ATL · TE
We project 49Recent average 44 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111
Kyle Pitts Sr. has averaged 15 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 56 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 12% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 38.5 (-111), and our model projects 49 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
Bijan Robinson over 41.5 receiving yards
ATL · RB
We project 52Recent average 46 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109
Bijan Robinson has averaged 46 receiving yards over 2 games this season and 46 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 12% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 41.5 (-109), and our model projects 52 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
Christian Watson under 4.5 receptions
GB · WR
We project 3.5Recent average 4.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -120
Christian Watson has averaged 4.9 receptions over 2 games this season and 3.5 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 18% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-120), and our model projects 3.5 — 1 below the number, so the play is the under.