Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Post-game analysis · Thursday, September 24, 2026
The pick
Take Atlanta Falcons +6.5
Atlanta Falcons is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 15, 2026 · 9:38 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
GB -5.5
Sportsbooks make Green Bay Packers the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 42.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Atlanta Falcons20
Green Bay Packers26
Final score
Atlanta Falcons35
Green Bay Packers14
Pick covered
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Post-game analysis · Sep 24, 2026
Post-game: Falcons Upset Packers 35-14 in Green Bay
On Thursday, September 24, 2026, the Atlanta Falcons traveled to Lambeau Field and routed the Green Bay Packers 35-14. Taking Atlanta at +6.5 against the tracked DraftKings line resulted in a clear win, as the Falcons bypassed the need for any point cushion and secured an outright road victory.
Our model correctly identified value on Atlanta against the spread, but the game script unfolded far differently than anticipated. We projected a 26-20 Green Bay win, leaning on market anchors that favored the Packers at home. Instead, Atlanta dominated on both sides of the ball, completely shutting down Green Bay's attack while easily outperforming our 20-point projection for their offense.
While the pick graded out as a win against the tracked number, the model missed badly on Green Bay's ability to compete in this spot. We are glad to bank the cover, but treating the Packers as six-point favorites overvalued their baseline form and failed to anticipate Atlanta's decisive edge in execution.
Matchup preview · Sep 24, 2026
Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers projection
Atlanta Falcons visit Green Bay Packers in NFL on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Our projection reads ATL 20 – GB 26, a 6-point edge to Green Bay Packers. DraftKings has GB -6.5 with a total of 46.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is Atlanta Falcons +6.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-15T20:06:45+00:00, rated low by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 20–26 away–home (week 3), leaning away against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: low. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Bijan Robinson over 41.5 receiving yards-109DraftKings line 41.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Christian Watson under 4.5 receptions-120DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Matthew Golden under 4.5 receptions-145DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Bijan Robinson over 4.5 receptions-143DraftKings line 4.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
- Christian Watson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+145DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result win
- Kyle Pitts Sr. over 38.5 receiving yards-111DraftKings line 38.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 1:07 AM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- ATL · RB
Bijan Robinson over 41.5 receiving yards
We project 52Recent average 46 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -109Bijan Robinson has averaged 46 receiving yards over 2 games this season and 46 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 12% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 41.5 (-109), and our model projects 52 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bijan Robinson 19 receiving yards
- GB · WR
Christian Watson under 4.5 receptions
We project 3.5Recent average 4.2 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -120Christian Watson has averaged 4.9 receptions over 2 games this season and 3.5 across 10 games last season, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 18% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-120), and our model projects 3.5 — 1 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Christian Watson 7 receptions
- GB · WR
Matthew Golden under 4.5 receptions
We project 2.7Recent average 3.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -145Matthew Golden has averaged 4.9 receptions over 2 games this season and 1.7 across 12 games last season, and the matchup is tough — they concede about 18% less than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-145), and our model projects 2.7 — 1.8 below the number, so the play is the under.
MissedFinal: Matthew Golden 5 receptions
- ATL · RB
Bijan Robinson over 4.5 receptions
We project 5.9Recent average 5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -143Bijan Robinson has averaged 5.3 receptions over 2 games this season and 4.8 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 18% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-143), and our model projects 5.9 — 1.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Bijan Robinson 2 receptions
- GB · WR
Christian Watson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.05Recent average 0.7 over 12 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +145Christian Watson scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 4 of 10 games last season (1.05 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 70% chance to score, against 41% in the DraftKings price (+145), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Christian Watson scored a touchdown
- ATL · TE
Kyle Pitts Sr. over 38.5 receiving yards
We project 49Recent average 44 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -111Kyle Pitts Sr. has averaged 15 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 56 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is favorable — they concede about 12% more than a league-average opponent. The DraftKings line is 38.5 (-111), and our model projects 49 — 10 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 receiving yards
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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