Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 27, 2026
The pick
Take San Francisco 49ers -8.5
San Francisco 49ers is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 8.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 16, 2026 · 8:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: medium
The betting line
SF -8.5
Sportsbooks make San Francisco 49ers the favorite by 8.5. Expected combined score: 47.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Arizona Cardinals19
San Francisco 49ers29
Final score
Arizona Cardinals30
San Francisco 49ers36
Pick missed
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Post-game analysis · Sep 27, 2026
Post-game: 49ers Edge Cardinals 36-30 but Miss the Cover
On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the San Francisco 49ers defeated the Arizona Cardinals 36–30, failing to cover the tracked -8.5 spread. While San Francisco secured the straight-up divisional win at home, Arizona stayed within six points to hand our medium-rated pick a loss.
Our model projected a 29–19 victory for San Francisco, correctly anticipating that the 49ers' offense would control tempo and put up points. San Francisco actually outperformed its projected 29 points by scoring 36. However, the overall game script was much more open and high-scoring than our baseline figures suggested.
The critical miscalculation was significantly underestimating Arizona's offensive output. The model pegged the Cardinals for just 19 points, but Arizona scored 30, consistently finding answers in the second half to keep the margin tight. It is a clear reminder that early-season projections can lag behind real-time offensive improvements, and backing a heavy divisional favorite leaves little margin for defensive lapses.
Matchup preview · Sep 27, 2026
Preview: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers projection
Arizona Cardinals visit San Francisco 49ers in NFL on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Our projection reads ARI 19 – SF 29, a 10-point edge to San Francisco 49ers. DraftKings has SF -8.5 with a total of 47.5.
This is week 3 of the 2026 regular season. 1 completed week of this regular season are blended with last season's results, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 288 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.
The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. Our published pick is San Francisco 49ers -8.5 at the draftkings number recorded 2026-09-17T00:06:20+00:00, rated medium by cs-nfl-2026.09.2, our preseason-free model, which is still being measured game by game against our published record. That locked number and this projection are what the result is graded against; neither is ever rewritten.
How the model got here
Projected 19–29 away–home (week 3), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: medium. [nflprov]
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Marvin Harrison Jr. over 29.5 receiving yards-110DraftKings line 29.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 6:18 PM EDT · result win
- Michael Wilson over 44.5 receiving yards-114DraftKings line 44.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 6:18 PM EDT · result win
- Christian McCaffrey over 56.5 rushing yards-114DraftKings line 56.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 6:18 PM EDT · result win
- Kyle Juszczyk — Anytime touchdown: Yes+800DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 6:18 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- ARI · RB
Jeremiyah Love — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +140Jeremiyah Love scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 42% in the DraftKings price (+140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jeremiyah Love scored a touchdown
- SF · WR
Deebo Samuel Sr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +195Deebo Samuel Sr. scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+195), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Deebo Samuel Sr. scored a touchdown
- ARI · WR
Marvin Harrison Jr. over 29.5 receiving yards
We project 47Recent average 47 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110Marvin Harrison Jr. has averaged 33 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 52 across 9 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 29.5 (-110), and our model projects 47 — 17 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Marvin Harrison Jr. 40 receiving yards
- ARI · WR
Michael Wilson over 44.5 receiving yards
We project 66Recent average 66 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114Michael Wilson has averaged 56 receiving yards over 1 game this season and 70 across 14 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 44.5 (-114), and our model projects 66 — 21 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Michael Wilson 89 receiving yards
- SF · RB
Christian McCaffrey over 56.5 rushing yards
We project 72Recent average 72 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -114Christian McCaffrey has averaged 68 rushing yards over 1 game this season and 73 across 15 games last season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 56.5 (-114), and our model projects 72 — 15 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Christian McCaffrey 75 rushing yards
- SF
Kyle Juszczyk — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +800Kyle Juszczyk scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 13 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Kyle Juszczyk did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NFL, plus how both teams have actually played.
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