Post-game analysisNFLSunday, September 13, 2026Final

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

Post-game analysis · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

ARI 18 – LAC 29

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Model rating: high

The betting line

LAC -8.5

Sportsbooks make Los Angeles Chargers the favorite by 8.5. Expected combined score: 47.5

DraftKings · updated Sun, 3:48 PM EDT

Our projected score

Arizona Cardinals logo Arizona Cardinals18

Los Angeles Chargers logo Los Angeles Chargers29

Final score

Arizona Cardinals logo Arizona Cardinals26

Los Angeles Chargers logo Los Angeles Chargers14

Pick missed

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 13, 2026

Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers projection

Arizona Cardinals visit Los Angeles Chargers in NFL on Sunday, September 13, 2026. Our projection reads ARI 18 – LAC 29, a 11-point edge to Los Angeles Chargers. DraftKings has LAC -9.5 with a total of 47.5.

This is week 1 of the 2026 regular season. No regular-season games have been completed yet this year, so last season's regular-season results carry the team ratings, adjusted for opponent quality and home field, across 272 regular-season games. Preseason games are excluded entirely, and the DraftKings number posted before kickoff carries 65% of the projection because our own sample is rated moderate.

The pre-kickoff availability record was 100% complete and is reflected in the projection. This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation; it comes from our preseason-free model, which is serving projections while it is still being measured game by game against our published record. Nothing here is counted in our graded record unless a pick is published for it.

How the model got here

Projected 18–29 away–home (week 1), leaning home against the DraftKings number. Regular-season form only; preseason excluded. 65% weight on the market. Rating: high. [nflprov]

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Trey McBride over 56.5 receiving yards-110DraftKings line 56.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 7, 7:56 AM EDT · result win
Michael Wilson over 41.5 receiving yards-113DraftKings line 41.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 7, 7:56 AM EDT · result win
Michael Wilson over 3.5 receptions-120DraftKings line 3.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 7, 7:56 AM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Quentin Johnston under 3.5 receptions
LAC · WR
We project 2.9Recent average 2.9 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -136
Quentin Johnston has averaged 2.9 receptions over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-136), and our model projects 2.9 — 0.6 below the number, so the play is the under.
HitFinal: Quentin Johnston 2 receptions
Quentin Johnston over 42.5 receiving yards
LAC · WR
We project 49Recent average 49 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -113
Quentin Johnston has averaged 49 receiving yards over 9 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 42.5 (-113), and our model projects 49 — 7 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Quentin Johnston 17 receiving yards
Omarion Hampton over 2.5 receptions
LAC · RB
We project 3.4Recent average 3.4 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +121
Omarion Hampton has averaged 3.4 receptions over 4 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (+121), and our model projects 3.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
Trey McBride over 56.5 receiving yards
ARI · TE
We project 78Recent average 78 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Trey McBride has averaged 78 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 56.5 (-110), and our model projects 78 — 22 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Trey McBride 95 receiving yards
Michael Wilson over 41.5 receiving yards
ARI · WR
We project 87Recent average 87 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -113
Michael Wilson has averaged 87 receiving yards over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 41.5 (-113), and our model projects 87 — 45 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Michael Wilson 56 receiving yards
Michael Wilson over 3.5 receptions
ARI · WR
We project 6Recent average 6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -120
Michael Wilson has averaged 6 receptions over 10 recent games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-120), and our model projects 6 — 2.5 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Michael Wilson 5 receptions