Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 26, 2026Final

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville Cardinals

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

WAKE 27 – LOU 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

LOU -13.5

Sportsbooks make Louisville Cardinals the favorite by 13.5. Expected combined score: 57.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 10:06 PM EDT

Our projected score

Wake Forest Demon Deacons logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons27

Louisville Cardinals logo Louisville Cardinals26

Final score

Wake Forest Demon Deacons logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons30

Louisville Cardinals logo Louisville Cardinals27

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Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026

Preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville Cardinals projection

Wake Forest Demon Deacons visit Louisville Cardinals in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects WAKE 27 – LOU 26, a 1-point edge to Wake Forest Demon Deacons. DraftKings currently has LOU -13.5 with a total of 57.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.66 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.66 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 24 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Carlos Hernandez — Anytime touchdown: Yes+135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 4:08 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jack Foley — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WAKE
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +390
Jack Foley scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+390), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Bryce Kania — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WAKE
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750
Bryce Kania scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Marquise Davis — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +230
Marquise Davis scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+230), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Marquise Davis did not score a touchdown
Lawayne McCoy — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +125
Lawayne McCoy scored in 3 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Lawayne McCoy did not score a touchdown
Lincoln Kienholz — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 1.33Recent average 1 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -210
Lincoln Kienholz scored in 3 of 3 games this season (1.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 68% in the DraftKings price (-210), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Lincoln Kienholz scored 2 touchdowns
Carlos Hernandez — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WAKE
We project 0.71Recent average 0.57 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +135
Carlos Hernandez scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 2 of 5 games last season (0.71 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 57% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Carlos Hernandez scored a touchdown