Sacramento State Hornets at Central Michigan Chippewas

Central Michigan hosts Sacramento State on Wednesday, with our statistical model projecting a 29–15 victory for the Chippewas. The number we took was Sacramento State at +15.5, which puts the Hornets just inside the tracked spread to cover by a 1.5-point margin against a posted total of 44.5.

The projection is built from 43 completed games across the current and discounted prior season, comprising 21 home-side and 22 away-side results with opponent adjustments. That provides an effective sample of 7.02 weighted games, which sits on the thinner side. The independent score is blended 40% toward the market baseline to establish the final numbers.

Prior to anchoring, the raw projection showed an independent disagreement of 1.7 points in Sacramento State’s favor against the market line. Because the projected edge is narrow and the underlying sample is relatively light, the model assigns a low rating to Sacramento State +15.5.