Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

SMU Mustangs at Louisville Cardinals

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

SMU 27 – LOU 30

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

LOU -3

Sportsbooks make Louisville Cardinals the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 57.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

SMU Mustangs logo SMU Mustangs27

Louisville Cardinals logo Louisville Cardinals30

Final score

SMU Mustangs logo SMU Mustangs31

Louisville Cardinals logo Louisville Cardinals41

ESPN2, ERADM — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: SMU Mustangs at Louisville Cardinals projection

SMU Mustangs visit Louisville Cardinals in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects SMU 28 – LOU 30, a 2-point edge to Louisville Cardinals. DraftKings currently has LOU -2.5 with a total of 58.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.67 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -2.5 / 58.5, which sat 0.932 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.67 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-2.5 / 58.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 57.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Low

Our projected combined score is 60 · Over win probability 52.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Theo Melin Ohrstrom — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SMU
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +425
Theo Melin Ohrstrom scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 19% in the DraftKings price (+425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Theo Melin Ohrstrom did not score a touchdown
Marquise Davis — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +350
Marquise Davis scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+350), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Yannick Smith — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SMU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +175
Yannick Smith scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+175), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Yannick Smith did not score a touchdown
Randy Pittman Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SMU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +175
Randy Pittman Jr. scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+175), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Randy Pittman Jr. did not score a touchdown
Lawayne McCoy — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +160
Lawayne McCoy scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Lawayne McCoy scored a touchdown
Lincoln Kienholz — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 1.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -120
Lincoln Kienholz scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 55% in the DraftKings price (-120), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Lincoln Kienholz scored a touchdown